2009 AFC Preview
The Steelers are the defending champs, the Patriots, Colts and Chargers are consistent favorites in most Super Bowl contender lists. While there are numerous top notch teams in the AFC, it could be difficult to think that any team is going to crack the hierarchy that exists. Raise your hand if you saw a Joe Flacco lead Ravens team winning 11 games last season, better yet, who had 11 wins pegged for a Dolphin team that won all of 1 game in 2007? Expect at least one team to come from the weeds to crash the playoff party this winter. Let’s take a look at who it might be.
AFC EAST
New York Jets
The Brett Favre experiment is over, one year lead to nine wins and a playoff miss. Replacing Favre is rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. The Jets were easily able to move up to the fifth spot and select the former USC Trojan. While the Falcons and Ravens made the playoffs lead by rookie signal callers last year, it is difficult to say that it’s a recipe for success. Upon further review, the aforementioned teams had quality defenses and good running games. The Jets new coach Rex Ryan is a defensive guru and the cupboard is far from bare. Throw in Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and one of the best offensive lines in the league and there is room for optimism.
Prediction: (7-9) This is a team with a nice mix of veteran talent and up and comers. Sanchez is not surrounded with elite talent at receiver, but he has enough weapons to be more than just a game manager. A difficult schedule should make a .500 winning percentage difficult to achieve, but this team should keep games close with a good running game.
Fantasy Forecast: Jerricho Cotchery will prove to be an adequate number one receiver with 70 catches and 7 scores.
New England Patriots
If you didn’t know any better you would think the Patriots won five games last year, more is made about Tom Brady’s lost season than the fact that the Patriots were playing arguably as well as any team going into the playoffs last year. The Patriots destroyed the Cardinals (NFC Champs) and won 11 games. Strangely, they lost a tie-breaker to the Dolphins. Eleven wins will make the playoffs nearly any year, the Patriots just came down on the wrong side of the karma sword for Spygate apparently.
Prediction: (13-3) To say that a team that is 27-5 in the past two regular seasons has underachieved would be ridiculous. History will show that this team lost in the 2007 Super Bowl and missed the 2008 playoffs. Tom Brady is back, some hungry veterans in Joey Galloway and Fred Taylor have been added to the mix, with Bill Belichick at the helm and Brady at quarterback, betting against the Patriots is not a wise move. They will win the division running away.
Fantasy Forecast: the large cast of characters at Tight End will find the end zone often. Chris Baker will lead the group with at least 5 touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills
Seven and Nine are the numbers the Bills have been living by over the past few seasons. There is no way they can put together a fourth 7-9 season. Right? This is essentially the same team, but now has a big play-maker and big distraction in Terrell Owens. The Patriots will be better, but the division may not be as good overall. The Bills will be without Marshawn Lynch for the first three weeks due to suspension.
Prediction: (6-10) At first, I wanted to have the Bills be the surprise team, Trent Edwards is more experienced he has good weapons and well they can’t go 7-9 again! Right? With a difficult schedule, the fact that T.O. has been a bit nicked up and the offensive coordinator was fired already doesn’t seem to be much reason to expect a breakthrough. If Edwards goes down, Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t keep the ship afloat.
Fantasy Forecast: Owens will open up some coverage for Lee Evans who will top 1,100 yds and 7 tds.
Miami Dolphins
I still don’t know how the Dolphins won 11 games last year, looking at their roster is one thing, the other is the fact it was a 10, count-em 10 game improvement. TEN. Chad Pennington could not be a better leader and efficient quarterback. The wildcat offense was nifty and the defense and special teams overachieved. Jason Taylor returns for one last hurrah, and the team has added some nice youth to the roster. Overall, this is the same group that took the AFC East.
Prediction: (7-9) I would still like to know how come the Dolphins are not in the South division, Jacksonville is! Unfortunately, as much as I love what the Dolphins are doing, they shot the moon last year. Chad Pennington is either going to get hurt or pulled in favor of Chad Henne if this team is not in the playoff race after 10-12 games. The most difficult schedule in the league and still no major game-breakers at wide receiver will lead to a big step back in the standings, but Bill Parcells is building a nice young team that will be competitive for years to come.
Fantasy Forecast: Chad Henne will start somewhere between 4-6 games this season. He will prove to be inferior to Pennington from a decision making standpoint, but make enough throws to warrant a long look in 2010.
AFC SOUTH:
Tennessee Titans
Usually 13-3 is a cause for celebration. The Titans were the regular season’s best team. The playoffs were another story. A disappointing performance erased the good memories of a 10 win start to the season. Albert Haynesworth is gone, Titans fans know not to panic. This is a franchise that never brings in big names, they lose big time players, but they get the most out of a well coached team year after year. The Titans are Steelers-lite. The ingredient missing is not the calories, but the quarterback. Kerry Collins was a feel-good story last year and he has a few new receivers to throw to, can he have a repeat of a solid, but not spectacular 2008?
Prediction: (11-5)
A great defense, strong special teams and arguably the best two-back setup in the league in Chris Johnson and LenDale White is a great place to start a winning team. The only question is in the passing game. Can Kerry Collins get enough respect from defenses to open up some room for the backs to run? If he can, the sky is the limit for the Titans. If Collins struggles, expect the calls for Vince Young to begin..remember him?
Fantasy Forecast: The addition of Nate Washington will be underwhelming. Expect 50 catches and 4 tds.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Remember when people thought the Jaguars were going to be Super Bowl contenders? That feels like a long time ago. Fred Taylor is gone, and so are anything resembling high expectations. This team was in disarray last year. David Garrard is still the quarterback. Is that a good thing? While he puts up all right statistical performances, there is something that seems to be missing. Torry Holt was brought in to shore up the receiving corps. While he is the easy #1 now, this would be better if I was writing this in 2002.
Prediction: (6-10)
The good news, Maurice Jones-Drew is back and there is talent on defense. The Jaguars are difficult to analyze, it seems like they have been close to the same team over the last several seasons. The amount of wins varies greatly over this time. You expect, a tough hard-nosed defense and a commitment to running, that seems to disappear once a lead is lost. The team seems to be stuck in purgatory, don’t expect Jack Del Rio to be back if more of last year takes place this year.
Fantasy Forecast: For the first time, M.J. Drew gets to be the lone wolf. The good thing is he will put up great numbers, the bad thing is he will wear down and miss a few games due to injury.
Indianapolis Colts
The Tony Dungy Era is over. When you take a look at what this means, consider the fact that the Colts have won 12 or more games in six consecutive seasons, and seven straight playoff appearances. These facts are unbelievable. In fact, I don’t believe them. Okay, they’re true, I checked them again. The coaching staff has lost some pieces and future hall of famer Marvin Harrison is gone. This feels like more than just losing your number two receiver and your head coach. With Peyton Manning running the show, how can you not expect another successful campaign?
Prediction: (10-6)
At some point, this team has to come back to reality. Peyton Manning has never played without Marvin Harrison on the roster, Harrison was slipping, but you cannot underestimate the comfort level. Couple this with the new coaching changes and a team that usually gets the most out of a roster with a definite lack of depth will make this year the one that breaks at least one streak (12 wins).
Fantasy Forecast: Anthony Gonzalez will catch 80 passes as Manning’s number two option.
Houston Texans
There always has to be a consensus sleeper. The Texans are this years sleeper. The former expansion franchise cannot rest on that designation. There is no David Carr. If this team doesn’t make it’s first playoff appearance there may be a new coach in Houston. The offense was potent and Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are two of the best in the league at their positions. The ingredients for success are there, now can this team cook up a winning season and playoff birth?
Prediction: (7-9)
Matt Schaub needs to stay healthy, the defense needs to improve and Steve Slaton has to prove that he’s not a one year wonder at running back. The Texans have been the victims of being in a division where there seems to be two twelve win teams every year. If this team was in the NFC West, we might have talked about them making a return to the playoffs. Are they really much worse than the Cardinals? High expectations and no real additions that will dramatically change the team will lead to disappointment.
Fantasy Forecast: Matt Schaub will finally stay relatively healthy and play in 14 games or more! (as you may have noticed I make injury predictions…you won’t find that on ESPN)
AFC WEST:
Kansas City Chiefs
For those of you who were napping during the Herm Edwards run, it’s time to wake up. There is a movement going on in Kansas City. Todd Haley comes from directing the high powered Cardinals passing game and he has Matt Cassel, the surprise of 2008 as the signal caller for the Patriots once Tom Brady went was injured in game one, ironically versus the Chiefs. The team is in full on rebuilding mode, they are stock piling defensive players and holding onto at least one figurehead of sorts in Larry Johnson at tailback.
Prediction: (4-12)
The Chiefs were exciting to watch near the end of the year when Tyler Thigpen was running the spread offense for Chan Gailey. Gailey is gone and Haley wants to put up points in the passing game. Is Matt Cassel the real deal? His contract suggests he is. If Larry Johnson can regain the form he had during an impressive run in the mid 2000’s, there could be room to work the middle of the field. Tony Gonzalez is gone and Cassel has decent options at wide receiver, but the defense looks to be a bit weak and points will have to come in bunches. Whether a new offense, with a new quarterback can put up the points needed remains to be seen.
Fantasy Forecast: Matt Cassel will throw for 20 touchdowns, less than last year, but passable. Get it?
San Diego Chargers
I picked the Chargers for the Super Bowl last year. They won 8 games and somehow got in the playoffs due to the fact the AFC West was atrocious and the Broncos imploded. The Patriots won 11 and missed out, the Chargers made the most of their opportunity and won a playoff game. Now they are trendy Super Bowl picks again. The team didn’t lose much, has good depth and Shawne Merriman returns along with newcomer Larry English as first round pass rush talent. If the defense can regain it’s form of a couple years ago look out.
Prediction: (11-5)
The Chargers are in an awful division. They will coast to a division win. The bigger question is if they can hang with the big dogs of the AFC. They proved that they could beat the Colts, but Indy looks like they are on the way down. The Steelers, Titans and Patriots will be the teams to beat. I think the Chargers have what it takes, but the defense will have to make great strides.
Fantasy Forecast: Chris Chambers will be heard from 6-7 touchdowns this season.
Oakland Raiders
Per usual, I will abstain from my want to rant on the state of this moribund franchise. Since the team was just one player away from a championship, Al Davis is bringing in Richard Seymour. The Raiders cannot stop the run, commit gobs of penalties and have mostly unproven players on the offensive line and at wide receiver. Oh and there is the fact that Jamarcus Russell is still an unknown. Good thing they have a valuable backup quarterback in Jeff Garcia. Wait…they cut him?
Prediction: (6-10)
The Raiders were hard charging last year, they won back to back games! There win over Tampa Bay in Tampa, knocking out the Bucs was pretty remarkable. This team has talent especially in the backfield and there is some sort of continuity with Tom “Rocky” Cable back. If Russell can provide plays through the passing game, this team could be a tough to walk over week after week. Expect improvement on offense and pray on defense.
Fantasy Forecast: Darren McFadden will rush for 1,300 yards if he can stay healthy for 14 games.
Denver Broncos
Where does one start? The Broncos looked like they would win the division last year, then imploded. Fired a hall of fame caliber coach, traded a franchise quarterback and seem to be ahead of the Raiders for craziest off-season. What is going on in the Mile-High City. In is Kyle Orton, out is the down field passing game. Confident young coach Josh McDaniels believes that Orton and 5-15 different running backs should provide consistency. The defense was awful last year and if they don’t improve rapidly, this could be a long season.
Prediction: (6-10)
The offense will be more balanced, but will that translate to more points? The defense has to be better than it was last year, their showing was pitiful. Kyle Orton is a game manager and he has better players around him than he did in Chicago. I could see a playoff appearance if things fall right, or I could see a last place finish in the worst division in football too.
Fantasy Forecast: At least four players will lead the Broncos in rushing at different times this season. Knowshon Moreno will catch 30 passes and score 8 total touchdowns to lead the group.
AFC NORTH:
Cleveland Browns
Remember Cleveland had a winning season not long ago? Me either. Brady Quinn is the starter. Who is excited by this? Apparently not Eric Mangini. Mangini must be irate, he did a good job in New York and had to take a job with a less talented team. It’s not far fetched to say the best two players not named Joe Thomas play the same position (quarterback). It’s more fair to say both quarterbacks are pretty average. This team is a mess, they didn’t get much for trading down in the draft. There will be some sad faces in the dog pound this year.
Prediction: (4-12)
Two years removed from 10-6. Mangini is a good coach who seemed to wear out his welcome awful quick in New York. He will bring his brand of football to a team ill-equipped to run often and play good defense. This team is more difficult to get excited about than almost any in the league. Joe Thomas is great, at least Brady Quinn won’t be blindsided.
Fantasy Forecast: Braylon Edwards will find a niche as a mid-tier receiver 8 touchdowns sounds right.
Baltimore Ravens
What was not to like about the Ravens season last year. They started a rookie from Delaware at quarterback, shuffled three backs in and out of the game had a 75 year old receiver lead the team in receiving and played amazing defense. A rookie head coach got them 11 wins. If you can forget the Dolphins and Falcons, the Ravens in any other season would have been the toast of the over-achiever league!
Prediction: (10-6)
Joe Flacco will have more responsibility, all the same options (not really a good thing) and a lot more pressure. The defense lost a couple big play makers in Bart Scott and Jim Leonard to the Jets. Not to mention their defensive coordinator. Fear not Ravens fans, the blueprint is there. Even if a great defense is merely good. The offense will pick up in year two of the John Harbaugh regime.
Fantasy Forecast: Ray Rice will take over the lead tailback role and contend for the team lead in receptions somewhere near 55 for the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
After a miraculous drive engineered by Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers were Super Bowl champs. The team returns intact and there is no reason to think that this team cannot win again. Repeating is difficult. This team has great coaching, amazing defense and good play-makers on offense. Rashard Mendenhall could add some punch to the mix this year after missing last year with a shoulder injury. The only concern is on the offensive line. Roethlisberger was beat up all year. If he misses an extended period of time due to injury Charlie Batch would be serviceable, but not a good playoff option.
Prediction: (13-3)
The always formidable Steelers should be right there when the playoffs begin and potentially in Miami for the Super Bowl. They will receive good challenges form a number of teams and the health of its great quarterback Roethlisberger will be vital to winning again in 2009. Expect a good and potentially great season, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat…it’s just too difficult!
Fantasy Forecast: Fast Willie Parker will make his way to the injured list quickly. 700 yards this year.
Cincinnati Bengals
It feels like a decade ago that the Bengals were 12-4 and a team on the rise, then the Steelers ended Carson Palmer’s career. Wait, they didn’t end his career, just seemed to act as the catalyst for a myriad of injuries over the past couple seasons. Palmer maintains he’s ready to go and healthy after sitting out most of last year. Chad Johnson (I refuse to type that thing he calls a name) and newly acquired Laverneus Coles are a good veteran base in the passing game, if Chris Henry is as good as he once was the passing game could be formidable. Then there is Cedric Benson, yes that Cedric Benson. He will get 20 carries a game, for better or worse.
Prediction: (7-9)
The Bengals are always finding themselves problem children, injured or just messing up potential victories. This team has quietly put together some good drafts (especially this year) and if Carson Palmer can resemble the guy that was considered a top 5 quarterback in this league not that long ago, this team could contend for the playoffs. If they were in a different division, I would be all for playing the surprise contender card. However, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think they could have a winning season. I just know better than to say it. I will say that they have accumulated some good young talent on defense and I can’t help but think what a solid coaching regime and a real personnel department could do with this squad.
Fantasy Forecast: Carson Palmer will throw for 20 tds. He will need to throw for 30 to get this team a winning record.
Playoffs:
AFC West: Chargers (11-5) AFC East: Patriots (14-2) AFC North: Steelers (13-3)
AFC South: Titans (11-5) Wild Cards: Colts (10-6) Ravens (10-6)
Wild Card Round: Chargers defeat Ravens & Titans defeat the Colts
Divisional Round: Patriots defeat Chargers & Steelers defeat Titans
AFC Championship: Patriots defeat Steelers
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