2009 NFC Preview
The NFC has been bridesmaid to the AFC much like the NBA’s Eastern Conference has been the punching bag of the Western Conference over the last several years. The AFC is built on haves and the have-nots. While there are no clear-cut favorites in the NFC, the consistent dominance of the Steelers, Patriots, Chargers and Colts leave little to the imagination for most, and for good reason. The NFC East is the most competitive and has the most depth, while the North and South are building some depth. The west coast, is clearly not the best coast despite the fact that the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals reside in the desert. Here are my fearless (who’s going to read this anyway) predictions for what promises to be a compelling season.
NFC EAST
New York Giants
The G-Men were standing tall through most of the season until Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg, proverbially shooting the passing game in the foot. There has been a lot of turnover in New York, out is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (Rams) Burress, Amani Toomer and Derrick Ward. The Giants are going to go with numerous younsters at WR, with no proven entities in the passing game will Eli Manning be able to provide balance to the excellent running game? Defensively this is one of the best in the league and the vaunted pass-rush goes about eight deep on the defensive line, a luxury no other team in the league has.
Prediction: (10-6)
Despite a fantastic defense and a rock solid running game, an injury to Brandon Jacobs or Ahmad Bradshaw could put pressure on a passing game with more question marks than Matthew Lesko’s jacket. This is a team with Super Bowl pedigree and potential, but the potential for injuries or under performance by the unproven wideouts could make for a difficult run in NFL’s toughest division. I see them winning between 9-12 games.
Fantasy Forecast: Brandon Jacobs will be the only Giant to score more than 6 touchdowns this season.
Washington Redskins
Too bad the NFL has a salary cap for the Washington Redskins. Daniel Snyder’s continuing spending sprees have not lead to enough wins, however they are always winners in free agency. This year’s prize was Albert Haynesworth. I can give you 100 million reasons why this smells of bust! The only one that counts is that big Al’s motor isn’t exactly running on high when it’s not a contract year. The offense is essentially the same. Is this the year Clinton Portis finally breaks down for good?
Prediction: (6-10)
I’d like to get behind the Redskins, they got off to a hot start last year. There are plenty of proven veterans, but if everyone was playing to their potential, I still don’t like them to make the playoffs. This team needs to lay the ground work for a plan. Mark Sanchez would have sadly been a better direction than Albert Haynesworth, if nothing else but to show that maybe a rebuilding of sorts is needed.
Fantasy Forecast: Malcolm Kelly pulls down five touchdowns.
Dallas Cowboys
I had egg on my face last year as I thought the Cowboys would have enough to get to the Super Bowl? Strangely, losing Terrell Owens was about the only drastic move. Addition by subtraction? I thought Roy Williams would be the missing piece last year to an already potent offense. Now he’s supposed to fill in as a number one in Dallas, my enthusiasm is tempered.
Prediction (10-6)
I love the talent on both sides of the ball and I think Wade Phillips would be a great wing-man. Problem is that he wouldn’t pull in any chicks. Nice guys won’t finish last, that distinction will go to the Redskins. The fact that expectations are not sky high in big-D bodes well for this team in my opinion. If things fall right for the Cowboys and they stay injury-free I could see them winning the division, or winning another winning season without a playoff birth could be in the cards too.
Fantasy Forecast: Patrick Crayton catches 70 balls as the number two receiver in Dallas.
Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Vick. Okay, moving on…the Eagles made moves all across the board. They have what could be the most talented offensive line in the league if Jason Peters and the Andrew’s Brothers (Shawn and Stacy) play up to par. Rookies Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy could provide depth to what is year after year a sum that is far greater than it’s skill position parts. Losing veteran safety Brian Dawkins will hurt, losing defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to cancer will hurt more.
Prediction: (11-5)
Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are starting to look like the Stockton-Malone of the NFL. They are aging and they have won more games than my research staff can count. Is this the year that they get over the hump? You can’t blame the team for not going for it with off-season moves. This team was very close to the Super Bowl last year and there is no reason to think they cannot do it again. Sadly, doing it again for the Eagles usually means a conference final. There seems to be a push for Miami this year, and in the next two years expect a Super Bowl birth or a massive overhaul that will not include Andy Reid, McNabb or Westbrook to be part of it.
Fantasy Forecast: Donovan McNabb will throw for 25 touchdowns and potentially run a couple more in.
NFC NORTH
Minnesota Vikings
Brett Favre. Okay, moving on….best combination of offensive and defensive lines west of East Rutherford, N.J. Pair that with an elite running back and a quarterback who commands admiration and respect (if not fear) from the opposition and what do you get? The Vikings have called our bluff. They finally have a quarterback. So what if any are the missing pieces? How about chemistry? Still searching…
Prediction: (11-5)
The schedule is painfully weak (second easiest) and this team was anyone but Tarvaris Jackson away from advancing in the playoffs last year. You have to think this team has Super Bowl potential, and if they win the easy games, home-field could be the key to their success.
Fantasy Forecast: Brett Favre will not play all 16 games, however he will throw for 3,300 yards and 20 tds.
Green Bay Packers
If this was professional wrestling, Brett Favre would be playing the role of “Hollywood Hogan,” good guy turned bad. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers is the people’s champ. Everyone forgets A-Rod is brittle, and if he is out for any length of time raise your hand if you have confidence in Erroll Flynn at quarterback. The offense has the looks of a juggernaut and Dom Capers has installed a 3-4 defense that should play to the roster’s strength at linebacker, watch out for rookie B.J. Raji at nose tackle. If Raji can join Tommie Harris of Chicago and the Viking’s Williams Brothers the Packers will have an elite anchor for years to come.
Prediction: (11-5)
If Rodgers is healthy, Ryan Grant totes the rock for 80 yards a game and the new 3-4 Dom Capers defense is anything resembling a Dom Capers defense, this team is going to the playoffs. Offensively, they should be the toast of the NFC, defensively we’re not sure. The only worry is that two teams from the North have not made the playoffs in some time and the Pack might need to grab the division title to get in.
Fantasy Forecast: Ryan Grant will double last year’s 4 touchdowns to 8.
Detroit Lions
Breathe deeply Lions fans, the Matt Millen era is over. Whether you blame him entirely for the Lions descent is neither here nor there. What is clear is that there is truly nowhere to go but up. Starting with superstar in the making Calvin Johnson and last year’s Ryan Grant in Kevin Smith and you have a start to something. Toss in an over-hyped quarterback in Matthew Stafford, oops I lost the censor there. Ahem, a rookie quarterback in Matthew Stafford and the Lions believe they have the makings for a resurgence.
Prediction: (3-13)
The decision has been made to overlook a former star in QB Daunte Culpepper and go with youth. There is nothing to lose you may say. I say there are games to be lost, and Stafford is going to throw some serious picks. Ask Georgia fans how much they will miss his drive killers? I love the arm and he’s got the right guy to throw to in Johnson, but this team is far from good on defense and rookie quarterbacks don’t often out-score veteran ones. Improvement is sure to come, be patient Lions fans.
Fantasy Forecast: If Stafford starts 16 games he will throw between 25 and 30 interceptions. Mark it down.
Chicago Bears
The quarterback everyone loves to hate, Jay Cutler, is a Chicago Bear. This news is about 5 years too late. Granted Cutler was slinging passes in the SEC then, but the Bears have had a revolving door at quarterback and without mentioning any names, lets just say Cutler is the best arm to blow into the windy city since Mark Prior. Forgive me, I’m mixing sports again. Last year, the defense took a giant step back and Matt Forte was a pleasant surprise as a rookie running back.
Prediction: (9-7)
Last year the Bears won nine games. This year they have the NFL’s easiest schedule. They have upgraded considerably at quarterback. So why do I think 9 wins? Between Eli Manning and Cutler, we will find out just how important having experienced/talented receivers are. It doesn’t appear Cutler has a lot to work with, but he will make them better. It wouldn’t shock me if the Bears win the division, but I’m not counting on it.
Fantasy Forecast: Greg Olsen leads the Bears with 70+ catches (maybe even in yards and touchdowns..gulp).
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers
Carolina liars were the Panthers last year. A 12-4 romp through the season, and a 33-13 beat-down at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs. Which team do you believe in? The Panthers are essentially the same team as last year. This could be a good thing, a great duo at running back, proven play-makers on defense and a steady quarterback in Jake Delhomme. The flipside, is the usually steady Delhomme had an atrocious performance that has left a bad taste in the mouths of anyone who watched regardless of who you were rooting for.
Prediction: (6-10)
Under coach John Fox’s tenure, this team has been consistently inconsistent. There is no way 12 wins are a possibility, not with the second toughest schedule in the league. No NFC South division champ has repeated and don’t expect that trend to change. I don’t expect Delhomme to make it through the season healthy and this team is a Josh McCown/Matt Moore audition away from reversing it’s 12-4 record to 4-12.
Fantasy Forecast: DeAngelo Williams will go for 12 tds this season, a marked drop from 20 a year ago.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were a surprise to love last year. Rookie QB, first year starting RB, rookie coach, rookie GM. I feel like I’m writing about an expansion team!! Matt Ryan was like the girl next door who literally moves next door to you and literally has “girl-next-door” looks. Can I set the literal record for milking this idea in a football paragraph? You go from the gorgeous, but wild and mean spirited girl who broke your heart after her _____ addiction and left you searching for refuge. Enter the fresh-faced, polite and quirky girl who makes you forget you ever even had good times with what’s her face.
Prediction: (9-7)
Can you expect the Falcons to build upon last year’s turnaround with so many important pieces comfortable and ready for year two? Sure! Eleven wins though seems a bit dramatic, but that was the case last year. The offense should improve with Tony Gonzalez meshing with a very talented group. The defense is where the question marks lie. If I was to shop around for a new team to follow, this would be the one with long-term potential. Don’t expect too much in year two, the Falcons won’t break your heart, but they might not win the division either.
Fantasy Forecast: Michael Turner will come back to earth with 1,300 yards and 9 tds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I don’t know where to begin here. Gone, gone, gone. Everyone is gone. Jon Gruden, Derrick Brooks, Warrick Dunn. The Buccaneers may have a plan, but I’m not sure what it is. The team was perennially bouncing between mediocrity and playoffs since their 2002 Super Bowl Triumph. The team was getting old, yes, but they were competitive. In is a new coach and plenty of new faces. Do Kellen Winslow and Derrick Ward make you shake in your boots? This will be a rebuilding effort.
Prediction: (4-12)
The defense could remain solid, the offensive line looks to be above average and there are a stable of okay players on offense. There is just a lot of okay going on here. I hate to say has-been as it may not prove to be appropriate, but if I told you 4 years ago that Byron Leftwich, Ward and Antonio Bryant were your nucleus on offense would you be any more confident then than one would be now?
Fantasy Forecast: Someone other than Winslow, Ward, Bryant will lead the team in touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints
It’s trendy to think that the record-setting type of aerial assault Drew Brees and company puts on display will translate into post-season glory. The Saints were disappointingly average last year. Scoring in bunches, and giving them all back. Not a lot has changed, the secondary should be better, thus making the defense better. The offense could take a step back and this would still be a potent team.
Prediction: (11-5)
I don’t think there is any team in the league that could have a bigger swing depending on one player than the Saints. If Drew Brees went down week one like Tom Brady did last year, I think this team could win 3 games. If he’s his usual superman self, I expect this team to win the division and be a contender come playoff time.
Fantasy Forecast: Lance Moore will be less, not in overall productions, but 6-7 touchdowns seems right.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers
When your coach is the biggest name on the team, that is rarely a good thing. When Mike Singletary is your coach, that seems to be a good thing. This team is a quintessential team I would root for. A gritty-gutty quarterback, an injury-prone tailback, the rookie wide-receiver who holds out and a bunch of high effort defensive players. I can just see myself leading this team on Madden to a 9-7 record and being perfectly happy.
Prediction: (6-10)
This team has less talent than most, but they do get the most out of what is there, and what isn’t for that matter. Frank Gore is a keeper and this is a potential “sum greater than the whole of its parts” story. Is Shaun Hill the next Rich Gannon or the next Jay Fiedler. If it’s the latter, this team isn’t going to the playoffs anytime soon.
Fantasy Forecast: Michael Crabtree doesn’t play this year, at least one rookie wideout in Oakland tops his 0 catches. I’m just not sure which.
Seattle Seahawks
Last year, Seahawks were beaten up more than any professional team not named the 2009 New York Mets. Out is legendary coach Mike Holmgren and in is Jim Mora Jr. who still wants to coach the University of Washington I think. This team has owned the west up until last year, and the Cardinals don’t look dynastic so it’s not unthinkable that the Seahawks make a run behind Matt Hasselbeck and his corps of possession receivers. I’m not sure I’ve seen less break-away ability at wideout since the 2002 Raiders. This west coast offense should keep the chains moving even if the running game doesn’t.
Prediction: (8-8)
Aaron Curry was the top pick at linebacker and will help the defense, this team has a good amount of talent across the board, but they don’t strike fear anywhere except maybe linebacker. If Hasselbeck stays healthy this team can make the playoffs. It also could miss it, with or with out him. If the Cardinals falter, pencil the Seahawks in for another division title.
Fantasy Forecast: Julius Jones does not run for 1,000 yards. I know, not bold, but he’s fun to tease.
Saint Louis Rams
This is one of the more interesting teams in the league. It has some well known names: Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Leonard Little. But, it also has some good young talent. The problem is there isn’t much else. This is a team with barely a recognizable name on offense beyond Bulger and Jackson and the defense is anything but deep. This team could surprise as it did last year, making a lot of games closer than expected, but don’t expect it to translate to a lot of wins.
Prediction: (4-12)
Health has been a problem for so long with key players that this team has sadly fallen from division contender to one of the weakest in the league. The strange part is there are the bridges to the Marshall Faulk era in Bulger and Jackson. At some point, maybe in two years, this team will be back on track, if not turf.
Fantasy Forecast: Randy McMichael catches 45 passes and this is unfortunately notable.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals you could say backed there way into a division championship last year, however, their backs were turned when they caught most of those passes anyway. Then the playoffs came and suddenly they could play some defense and even run it with Edgerrin James. Santonio Holmes had to ruin it all or this would have been the biggest shocker to win the Super Bowl maybe ever. The Cardinals can hang their hats on a remarkable season, or they can come back for more. They didn’t lose much and drafted Chris “Beanie” Wells at the end of the first round, if he can provide balance watch out.
Prediction: (9-7)
Forget Jake Plummer, the Cardinals passing game resembled the Stoney Case days this pre-season. The whole post Super-Bowl loss letdown season looks way too likely if the pre-season is any indication. But, the pre-season is rarely any indication of anything. I don’t expect the Cardinals to take the next step toward consistently making the playoffs, but they could. I just don’t think any of the teams in this division are good enough to take the crown from them. But, the Seahawks just might.
Fantasy Forecast: Kurt Warner will play in 9 games this season. He will throw for 18-20 tds though.
Playoffs:
NFC West: Cardinals (9-7) NFC East: Eagles (11-5) NFC North: Vikings (11-5)
NFC South: Saints (11-5) Wild Cards: Packers (11-5) Cowboys (10-6)
Wild Card Round: Cowboys defeat Cardinals Packers defeat Saints
Divisional Round: Eagles defeats Packers Vikings defeat Cowboys
NFC Championship: Eagles defeats Vikings
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