Do Big Arm’s Pay Big Dividends?
Anyone who knows my preference in a quarterback knows that I have an affinity for the quarterbacks who would be described with such adjectives as: gritty, gutty, gamer, good-decision maker, game manager. Okay maybe I just used terms starting with the letter G, but you get the idea. Rich Gannon was easily my favorite quarterback as he was the epitome of getting the most out of an average at best skill-set. It was with great disappointment when I saw JaMarcus Russell selected number one by my Oakland Raiders. It’s too early to write off Russell, but lets just say he has not surprised my original prediction that rhymed with dust.
This made me want to examine further whether my belief that quarterbacks with better intangibles than arms, or better decision making ability is more important than the ability to make the deep out throw. Does my argument hold water? Lets find out….
The Cannons
This group have undisputed arms. No scout would question their ability to make “all the throws”
JaMarcus Russell (OAKLAND 2-7)
- speculation that he has possibly the strongest arm in NFL history. Also could have the worst touch in NFL history.
Daunte Culpepper (DETROIT 0-2)
- Had a great run throwing deep to Randy Moss in Minnesota, also has shown to be of little help to at least two franchises. Just pulled off the street by the Lions.
Matt Cassel (NEW ENGLAND 5-3)
- Tom Brady’s caddie is making a name for himself with an ever improving game, including the 400 yard exclamation point last week, albeit in a loss to…
Brett Favre (NEW YORK JETS 7-3)
- The veteran gunslinger, still throws harder than most, leading the first place Jets in his first season.
Ben Roethlisberger (PITTSBURGH 7-3)
- Big Ben, seen often with an ice-bag on his shoulder. This year because of being battered enough to be put in a shelter. He also throws enough heat to warrant an ice-bag once in a while.
Joe Flacco (BALTIMORE 6-4)
- Strong-armed rookie has been surprisingly effective for the upstart Ravens.
Jay Cutler (DENVER 6-4)
- Has proclaimed his arm to be stronger than Elway’s ever was. I proclaim he’s cockier than Elway was and he will have two less rings to show for it.
Matt Ryan (ATLANTA 6-4)
- This most impressive rookie has been everything the Falcons hoped for and more. Threw a touchdown on his first drive and has not looked back since.
Jason Campbell (WASHINGTON 6-4)
- Campbell has been called upon to be a game manager, but he has a strong arm and looks to be putting it all together.
Peyton Manning (INDIANAPOLIS 6-4)
- Never thought of as overpowering physically, but he can make all the throws with good zip much like..
Eli Manning (NEW YORK GIANTS 9-1)
- Better arm than big brother Peyton, that’s where the comparison ends in terms of who’s stronger in individual areas.
Aaron Rodgers (GREEN BAY 5-5)
- No Favre arm, but throws one of the prettier and more catchable deep balls in the league.
Kerry Collins (TENNESSEE 9-0)
- The embattled veteran has been through several stops and has thrown a tight spiral everywhere he goes. Much maligned, but he’s been to the conference championships with two different teams, doesn’t look like a third is hard to imagine.
CARSON PALMER (CINCINNATI 0-4)
- The golden boy didn’t have a chance this year, something was awry. Injuries, poor protection and his own problems. He should probably shut it down for the year.
CANNONS RECORD: 74-49 Winning Percentage 60% projects to 10-6 record
LEGAL FIRE ARMS
This group does not demand extensive game planning against the deep ball, but they have NFL arms which can make the necessary throws to move the chains.
Tyler Thigpen (KANSAS CITY 0-4)
- Biggest thing to hit the Thigpen clan since Yancey! Leading a spunky KC offense.
Philip Rivers (SAN DIEGO 4-6)
- Fiery leader taking over duties under what could become a pass-first offense for the first time during the LT administration.
Kurt Warner (ARIZONA 7-3)
- Owner of one of the quickest releases, is making a strong bid for a third MVP trophy, not to mention resurrecting football in the desert.
Tony Romo (DALLAS 5-2)
- Makes the potent Cowboys offense go, he showed how valuable he is during their free-fall during his absence.
Matt Schaub (HOUSTON 3-4)
- Injury prone quarterback who inspires hope while on the field, but will he ever play a full season?
Drew Brees (NEW ORLEANS 5-5)
- Arm has been questioned, but you can’t question his results, putting up possibly the most impressive statistical season for any quarterback the NFL has seen.
Kyle Orton (CHICAGO 5-4)
- Orton Hears a Hoo, he was hooing everywhere early this season and you thought that was a bad thing. Has at least cemented himself as a stop-gap starter for a team with a decent defense.
Donovan McNabb (PHILADELPHIA 5-4-1)
- Has an arm that can make most of the throws, but is a bit erratic on deeper passes. He has been a fixture for Andy Reid and continues to play well when he plays.
David Garrard (JACKSONVILLE 4-6)
- Words like game-manager are used to describe him, he’s steady across the board.
Trent Edwards (BUFFALO 5-5)
- Tedwards was the toast of the town for the first six weeks, now not as much.
Matt Hasselbeck (SEATTLE 1-4)
- Has done everything Mike Holmgren has asked of him in his tenure, maybe the best compliment you can pay Hasselbeck is the fact that he was thought to be a risky starter when he came over from Green Bay.
Gus Frerotte (MINNESOTA 5-3)
- The maligned veteran is experiencing a bit of a renaissance in Minnesota despite the fact his play is pretty much the same as always. The new Gus same as the old Gus, but winning keeps the critics away.
Brady Quinn (CLEVELAND 1-1)
- Was in more commercials than NFL games up until recently, he’s created excitement for the Dog Pound.
OVERALL 50-51-1 Winning Percentage 49% projects to 8-8 record
POP GUN ARMS
This group have been criticized for not having the arms to test defenses and are relegated to dink-and-dunk offenses. They do not strike fear in defensive backs hearts.
Chad Pennington (MIAMI 6-4)
- Doing all the things needed for the surprise team of the NFL, he has already helped lead the team to five more wins than last year.
Jeff Garcia (TAMPA BAY 4-3)
- The current poster boy for this category, all Garcia does is complete passes, move the chains and win. Everywhere he has gone they have won. Well except Detroit, but nobody can win in Detroit.
Jake Delhomme (CAROLINA 8-2)
- An intangibles guy who has been a winner in Carolina, he makes one of the best deep threats, Steve Smith, work for all his big plays, despite getting a bit in the way of the offense lately, he is usually reliable.
Marc Bulger (SAINT LOUIS 2-7)
- Can be an excellent trigger-man when surrounded with high-end talent. When he’s not…well he’s average at best
Shaun Hill (SAN FRANCISCO 1-2)
- A lot of moxie, very little flash, but he’ll give you what he has. If only he could give you that and MORE.
Brian Griese (TAMPA BAY 3-0)
- Through 67 passes for Jon Gruden in one game, I think you can think of at least thirty quarterbacks you’d rather have throwing that many passes.
OVERALL 24-18 Winning Percentage 57% projects to a 9-7 record
VERDICT
The huge arms actually have the best winning percentage, can’t argue with the numbers! Obviously, the big stars of the NFL are the guys with the monster arms and for good reason.
The middle group with average arms, seem to give you average results. Showing that my original argument doesn’t miss much when you take out the guys who are neither combine wonders nor underwhelming every-mans.
My favorite guys, the pop-gun club win you more than they lose!
Of course there are several factors to note, many quarterbacks who played several games are not listed. Namely Lions starters (which would equally hurt across the board) and strong armed Derek Anderson’s 3-5 record is no help to the first group.
What you see here is that the stats are ever so close. The sample size of the pop-gun club is the smallest, because these guys are rarely given the opportunity to start. If the playoffs began today however 3/5 teams who employ these underwhelming specimens would be in the playoffs.
What I’m saying is that the cost of an elite talent in the draft or via free agency often outweighs the price tag that comes with these acquisitions in terms of wins. Improving your team across the board and starting a serviceable signal caller who will keep you in the game is a recipe that can easily get you to the playoffs.
In the end, the guys with the rocket arms seem to hold the trophy at the end of the year. By my rankings the last ten championships were disbursed 7-1-2. What would be more helpful would be an examination of the amount of abject failures in the strong armed category. For every Ben Roethlisberger there have been 4 Akili Smith’s. Rarely do teams go bust on a Chad Pennington.
I guess what I’m saying is Jeff George got a raw deal.
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