2009 AFC Preview
The Steelers are the defending champs, the Patriots, Colts and Chargers are consistent favorites in most Super Bowl contender lists. While there are numerous top notch teams in the AFC, it could be difficult to think that any team is going to crack the hierarchy that exists. Raise your hand if you saw a Joe Flacco lead Ravens team winning 11 games last season, better yet, who had 11 wins pegged for a Dolphin team that won all of 1 game in 2007? Expect at least one team to come from the weeds to crash the playoff party this winter. Let’s take a look at who it might be.
AFC EAST
New York Jets
The Brett Favre experiment is over, one year lead to nine wins and a playoff miss. Replacing Favre is rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. The Jets were easily able to move up to the fifth spot and select the former USC Trojan. While the Falcons and Ravens made the playoffs lead by rookie signal callers last year, it is difficult to say that it’s a recipe for success. Upon further review, the aforementioned teams had quality defenses and good running games. The Jets new coach Rex Ryan is a defensive guru and the cupboard is far from bare. Throw in Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and one of the best offensive lines in the league and there is room for optimism.
Prediction: (7-9) This is a team with a nice mix of veteran talent and up and comers. Sanchez is not surrounded with elite talent at receiver, but he has enough weapons to be more than just a game manager. A difficult schedule should make a .500 winning percentage difficult to achieve, but this team should keep games close with a good running game.
Fantasy Forecast: Jerricho Cotchery will prove to be an adequate number one receiver with 70 catches and 7 scores.
New England Patriots
If you didn’t know any better you would think the Patriots won five games last year, more is made about Tom Brady’s lost season than the fact that the Patriots were playing arguably as well as any team going into the playoffs last year. The Patriots destroyed the Cardinals (NFC Champs) and won 11 games. Strangely, they lost a tie-breaker to the Dolphins. Eleven wins will make the playoffs nearly any year, the Patriots just came down on the wrong side of the karma sword for Spygate apparently.
Prediction: (13-3) To say that a team that is 27-5 in the past two regular seasons has underachieved would be ridiculous. History will show that this team lost in the 2007 Super Bowl and missed the 2008 playoffs. Tom Brady is back, some hungry veterans in Joey Galloway and Fred Taylor have been added to the mix, with Bill Belichick at the helm and Brady at quarterback, betting against the Patriots is not a wise move. They will win the division running away.
Fantasy Forecast: the large cast of characters at Tight End will find the end zone often. Chris Baker will lead the group with at least 5 touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills
Seven and Nine are the numbers the Bills have been living by over the past few seasons. There is no way they can put together a fourth 7-9 season. Right? This is essentially the same team, but now has a big play-maker and big distraction in Terrell Owens. The Patriots will be better, but the division may not be as good overall. The Bills will be without Marshawn Lynch for the first three weeks due to suspension.
Prediction: (6-10) At first, I wanted to have the Bills be the surprise team, Trent Edwards is more experienced he has good weapons and well they can’t go 7-9 again! Right? With a difficult schedule, the fact that T.O. has been a bit nicked up and the offensive coordinator was fired already doesn’t seem to be much reason to expect a breakthrough. If Edwards goes down, Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t keep the ship afloat.
Fantasy Forecast: Owens will open up some coverage for Lee Evans who will top 1,100 yds and 7 tds.
Miami Dolphins
I still don’t know how the Dolphins won 11 games last year, looking at their roster is one thing, the other is the fact it was a 10, count-em 10 game improvement. TEN. Chad Pennington could not be a better leader and efficient quarterback. The wildcat offense was nifty and the defense and special teams overachieved. Jason Taylor returns for one last hurrah, and the team has added some nice youth to the roster. Overall, this is the same group that took the AFC East.
Prediction: (7-9) I would still like to know how come the Dolphins are not in the South division, Jacksonville is! Unfortunately, as much as I love what the Dolphins are doing, they shot the moon last year. Chad Pennington is either going to get hurt or pulled in favor of Chad Henne if this team is not in the playoff race after 10-12 games. The most difficult schedule in the league and still no major game-breakers at wide receiver will lead to a big step back in the standings, but Bill Parcells is building a nice young team that will be competitive for years to come.
Fantasy Forecast: Chad Henne will start somewhere between 4-6 games this season. He will prove to be inferior to Pennington from a decision making standpoint, but make enough throws to warrant a long look in 2010.
AFC SOUTH:
Tennessee Titans
Usually 13-3 is a cause for celebration. The Titans were the regular season’s best team. The playoffs were another story. A disappointing performance erased the good memories of a 10 win start to the season. Albert Haynesworth is gone, Titans fans know not to panic. This is a franchise that never brings in big names, they lose big time players, but they get the most out of a well coached team year after year. The Titans are Steelers-lite. The ingredient missing is not the calories, but the quarterback. Kerry Collins was a feel-good story last year and he has a few new receivers to throw to, can he have a repeat of a solid, but not spectacular 2008?
Prediction: (11-5)
A great defense, strong special teams and arguably the best two-back setup in the league in Chris Johnson and LenDale White is a great place to start a winning team. The only question is in the passing game. Can Kerry Collins get enough respect from defenses to open up some room for the backs to run? If he can, the sky is the limit for the Titans. If Collins struggles, expect the calls for Vince Young to begin..remember him?
Fantasy Forecast: The addition of Nate Washington will be underwhelming. Expect 50 catches and 4 tds.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Remember when people thought the Jaguars were going to be Super Bowl contenders? That feels like a long time ago. Fred Taylor is gone, and so are anything resembling high expectations. This team was in disarray last year. David Garrard is still the quarterback. Is that a good thing? While he puts up all right statistical performances, there is something that seems to be missing. Torry Holt was brought in to shore up the receiving corps. While he is the easy #1 now, this would be better if I was writing this in 2002.
Prediction: (6-10)
The good news, Maurice Jones-Drew is back and there is talent on defense. The Jaguars are difficult to analyze, it seems like they have been close to the same team over the last several seasons. The amount of wins varies greatly over this time. You expect, a tough hard-nosed defense and a commitment to running, that seems to disappear once a lead is lost. The team seems to be stuck in purgatory, don’t expect Jack Del Rio to be back if more of last year takes place this year.
Fantasy Forecast: For the first time, M.J. Drew gets to be the lone wolf. The good thing is he will put up great numbers, the bad thing is he will wear down and miss a few games due to injury.
Indianapolis Colts
The Tony Dungy Era is over. When you take a look at what this means, consider the fact that the Colts have won 12 or more games in six consecutive seasons, and seven straight playoff appearances. These facts are unbelievable. In fact, I don’t believe them. Okay, they’re true, I checked them again. The coaching staff has lost some pieces and future hall of famer Marvin Harrison is gone. This feels like more than just losing your number two receiver and your head coach. With Peyton Manning running the show, how can you not expect another successful campaign?
Prediction: (10-6)
At some point, this team has to come back to reality. Peyton Manning has never played without Marvin Harrison on the roster, Harrison was slipping, but you cannot underestimate the comfort level. Couple this with the new coaching changes and a team that usually gets the most out of a roster with a definite lack of depth will make this year the one that breaks at least one streak (12 wins).
Fantasy Forecast: Anthony Gonzalez will catch 80 passes as Manning’s number two option.
Houston Texans
There always has to be a consensus sleeper. The Texans are this years sleeper. The former expansion franchise cannot rest on that designation. There is no David Carr. If this team doesn’t make it’s first playoff appearance there may be a new coach in Houston. The offense was potent and Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are two of the best in the league at their positions. The ingredients for success are there, now can this team cook up a winning season and playoff birth?
Prediction: (7-9)
Matt Schaub needs to stay healthy, the defense needs to improve and Steve Slaton has to prove that he’s not a one year wonder at running back. The Texans have been the victims of being in a division where there seems to be two twelve win teams every year. If this team was in the NFC West, we might have talked about them making a return to the playoffs. Are they really much worse than the Cardinals? High expectations and no real additions that will dramatically change the team will lead to disappointment.
Fantasy Forecast: Matt Schaub will finally stay relatively healthy and play in 14 games or more! (as you may have noticed I make injury predictions…you won’t find that on ESPN)
AFC WEST:
Kansas City Chiefs
For those of you who were napping during the Herm Edwards run, it’s time to wake up. There is a movement going on in Kansas City. Todd Haley comes from directing the high powered Cardinals passing game and he has Matt Cassel, the surprise of 2008 as the signal caller for the Patriots once Tom Brady went was injured in game one, ironically versus the Chiefs. The team is in full on rebuilding mode, they are stock piling defensive players and holding onto at least one figurehead of sorts in Larry Johnson at tailback.
Prediction: (4-12)
The Chiefs were exciting to watch near the end of the year when Tyler Thigpen was running the spread offense for Chan Gailey. Gailey is gone and Haley wants to put up points in the passing game. Is Matt Cassel the real deal? His contract suggests he is. If Larry Johnson can regain the form he had during an impressive run in the mid 2000’s, there could be room to work the middle of the field. Tony Gonzalez is gone and Cassel has decent options at wide receiver, but the defense looks to be a bit weak and points will have to come in bunches. Whether a new offense, with a new quarterback can put up the points needed remains to be seen.
Fantasy Forecast: Matt Cassel will throw for 20 touchdowns, less than last year, but passable. Get it?
San Diego Chargers
I picked the Chargers for the Super Bowl last year. They won 8 games and somehow got in the playoffs due to the fact the AFC West was atrocious and the Broncos imploded. The Patriots won 11 and missed out, the Chargers made the most of their opportunity and won a playoff game. Now they are trendy Super Bowl picks again. The team didn’t lose much, has good depth and Shawne Merriman returns along with newcomer Larry English as first round pass rush talent. If the defense can regain it’s form of a couple years ago look out.
Prediction: (11-5)
The Chargers are in an awful division. They will coast to a division win. The bigger question is if they can hang with the big dogs of the AFC. They proved that they could beat the Colts, but Indy looks like they are on the way down. The Steelers, Titans and Patriots will be the teams to beat. I think the Chargers have what it takes, but the defense will have to make great strides.
Fantasy Forecast: Chris Chambers will be heard from 6-7 touchdowns this season.
Oakland Raiders
Per usual, I will abstain from my want to rant on the state of this moribund franchise. Since the team was just one player away from a championship, Al Davis is bringing in Richard Seymour. The Raiders cannot stop the run, commit gobs of penalties and have mostly unproven players on the offensive line and at wide receiver. Oh and there is the fact that Jamarcus Russell is still an unknown. Good thing they have a valuable backup quarterback in Jeff Garcia. Wait…they cut him?
Prediction: (6-10)
The Raiders were hard charging last year, they won back to back games! There win over Tampa Bay in Tampa, knocking out the Bucs was pretty remarkable. This team has talent especially in the backfield and there is some sort of continuity with Tom “Rocky” Cable back. If Russell can provide plays through the passing game, this team could be a tough to walk over week after week. Expect improvement on offense and pray on defense.
Fantasy Forecast: Darren McFadden will rush for 1,300 yards if he can stay healthy for 14 games.
Denver Broncos
Where does one start? The Broncos looked like they would win the division last year, then imploded. Fired a hall of fame caliber coach, traded a franchise quarterback and seem to be ahead of the Raiders for craziest off-season. What is going on in the Mile-High City. In is Kyle Orton, out is the down field passing game. Confident young coach Josh McDaniels believes that Orton and 5-15 different running backs should provide consistency. The defense was awful last year and if they don’t improve rapidly, this could be a long season.
Prediction: (6-10)
The offense will be more balanced, but will that translate to more points? The defense has to be better than it was last year, their showing was pitiful. Kyle Orton is a game manager and he has better players around him than he did in Chicago. I could see a playoff appearance if things fall right, or I could see a last place finish in the worst division in football too.
Fantasy Forecast: At least four players will lead the Broncos in rushing at different times this season. Knowshon Moreno will catch 30 passes and score 8 total touchdowns to lead the group.
AFC NORTH:
Cleveland Browns
Remember Cleveland had a winning season not long ago? Me either. Brady Quinn is the starter. Who is excited by this? Apparently not Eric Mangini. Mangini must be irate, he did a good job in New York and had to take a job with a less talented team. It’s not far fetched to say the best two players not named Joe Thomas play the same position (quarterback). It’s more fair to say both quarterbacks are pretty average. This team is a mess, they didn’t get much for trading down in the draft. There will be some sad faces in the dog pound this year.
Prediction: (4-12)
Two years removed from 10-6. Mangini is a good coach who seemed to wear out his welcome awful quick in New York. He will bring his brand of football to a team ill-equipped to run often and play good defense. This team is more difficult to get excited about than almost any in the league. Joe Thomas is great, at least Brady Quinn won’t be blindsided.
Fantasy Forecast: Braylon Edwards will find a niche as a mid-tier receiver 8 touchdowns sounds right.
Baltimore Ravens
What was not to like about the Ravens season last year. They started a rookie from Delaware at quarterback, shuffled three backs in and out of the game had a 75 year old receiver lead the team in receiving and played amazing defense. A rookie head coach got them 11 wins. If you can forget the Dolphins and Falcons, the Ravens in any other season would have been the toast of the over-achiever league!
Prediction: (10-6)
Joe Flacco will have more responsibility, all the same options (not really a good thing) and a lot more pressure. The defense lost a couple big play makers in Bart Scott and Jim Leonard to the Jets. Not to mention their defensive coordinator. Fear not Ravens fans, the blueprint is there. Even if a great defense is merely good. The offense will pick up in year two of the John Harbaugh regime.
Fantasy Forecast: Ray Rice will take over the lead tailback role and contend for the team lead in receptions somewhere near 55 for the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
After a miraculous drive engineered by Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers were Super Bowl champs. The team returns intact and there is no reason to think that this team cannot win again. Repeating is difficult. This team has great coaching, amazing defense and good play-makers on offense. Rashard Mendenhall could add some punch to the mix this year after missing last year with a shoulder injury. The only concern is on the offensive line. Roethlisberger was beat up all year. If he misses an extended period of time due to injury Charlie Batch would be serviceable, but not a good playoff option.
Prediction: (13-3)
The always formidable Steelers should be right there when the playoffs begin and potentially in Miami for the Super Bowl. They will receive good challenges form a number of teams and the health of its great quarterback Roethlisberger will be vital to winning again in 2009. Expect a good and potentially great season, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat…it’s just too difficult!
Fantasy Forecast: Fast Willie Parker will make his way to the injured list quickly. 700 yards this year.
Cincinnati Bengals
It feels like a decade ago that the Bengals were 12-4 and a team on the rise, then the Steelers ended Carson Palmer’s career. Wait, they didn’t end his career, just seemed to act as the catalyst for a myriad of injuries over the past couple seasons. Palmer maintains he’s ready to go and healthy after sitting out most of last year. Chad Johnson (I refuse to type that thing he calls a name) and newly acquired Laverneus Coles are a good veteran base in the passing game, if Chris Henry is as good as he once was the passing game could be formidable. Then there is Cedric Benson, yes that Cedric Benson. He will get 20 carries a game, for better or worse.
Prediction: (7-9)
The Bengals are always finding themselves problem children, injured or just messing up potential victories. This team has quietly put together some good drafts (especially this year) and if Carson Palmer can resemble the guy that was considered a top 5 quarterback in this league not that long ago, this team could contend for the playoffs. If they were in a different division, I would be all for playing the surprise contender card. However, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think they could have a winning season. I just know better than to say it. I will say that they have accumulated some good young talent on defense and I can’t help but think what a solid coaching regime and a real personnel department could do with this squad.
Fantasy Forecast: Carson Palmer will throw for 20 tds. He will need to throw for 30 to get this team a winning record.
Playoffs:
AFC West: Chargers (11-5) AFC East: Patriots (14-2) AFC North: Steelers (13-3)
AFC South: Titans (11-5) Wild Cards: Colts (10-6) Ravens (10-6)
Wild Card Round: Chargers defeat Ravens & Titans defeat the Colts
Divisional Round: Patriots defeat Chargers & Steelers defeat Titans
AFC Championship: Patriots defeat Steelers
2009 NFC Preview
The NFC has been bridesmaid to the AFC much like the NBA’s Eastern Conference has been the punching bag of the Western Conference over the last several years. The AFC is built on haves and the have-nots. While there are no clear-cut favorites in the NFC, the consistent dominance of the Steelers, Patriots, Chargers and Colts leave little to the imagination for most, and for good reason. The NFC East is the most competitive and has the most depth, while the North and South are building some depth. The west coast, is clearly not the best coast despite the fact that the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals reside in the desert. Here are my fearless (who’s going to read this anyway) predictions for what promises to be a compelling season.
NFC EAST
New York Giants
The G-Men were standing tall through most of the season until Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg, proverbially shooting the passing game in the foot. There has been a lot of turnover in New York, out is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (Rams) Burress, Amani Toomer and Derrick Ward. The Giants are going to go with numerous younsters at WR, with no proven entities in the passing game will Eli Manning be able to provide balance to the excellent running game? Defensively this is one of the best in the league and the vaunted pass-rush goes about eight deep on the defensive line, a luxury no other team in the league has.
Prediction: (10-6)
Despite a fantastic defense and a rock solid running game, an injury to Brandon Jacobs or Ahmad Bradshaw could put pressure on a passing game with more question marks than Matthew Lesko’s jacket. This is a team with Super Bowl pedigree and potential, but the potential for injuries or under performance by the unproven wideouts could make for a difficult run in NFL’s toughest division. I see them winning between 9-12 games.
Fantasy Forecast: Brandon Jacobs will be the only Giant to score more than 6 touchdowns this season.
Washington Redskins
Too bad the NFL has a salary cap for the Washington Redskins. Daniel Snyder’s continuing spending sprees have not lead to enough wins, however they are always winners in free agency. This year’s prize was Albert Haynesworth. I can give you 100 million reasons why this smells of bust! The only one that counts is that big Al’s motor isn’t exactly running on high when it’s not a contract year. The offense is essentially the same. Is this the year Clinton Portis finally breaks down for good?
Prediction: (6-10)
I’d like to get behind the Redskins, they got off to a hot start last year. There are plenty of proven veterans, but if everyone was playing to their potential, I still don’t like them to make the playoffs. This team needs to lay the ground work for a plan. Mark Sanchez would have sadly been a better direction than Albert Haynesworth, if nothing else but to show that maybe a rebuilding of sorts is needed.
Fantasy Forecast: Malcolm Kelly pulls down five touchdowns.
Dallas Cowboys
I had egg on my face last year as I thought the Cowboys would have enough to get to the Super Bowl? Strangely, losing Terrell Owens was about the only drastic move. Addition by subtraction? I thought Roy Williams would be the missing piece last year to an already potent offense. Now he’s supposed to fill in as a number one in Dallas, my enthusiasm is tempered.
Prediction (10-6)
I love the talent on both sides of the ball and I think Wade Phillips would be a great wing-man. Problem is that he wouldn’t pull in any chicks. Nice guys won’t finish last, that distinction will go to the Redskins. The fact that expectations are not sky high in big-D bodes well for this team in my opinion. If things fall right for the Cowboys and they stay injury-free I could see them winning the division, or winning another winning season without a playoff birth could be in the cards too.
Fantasy Forecast: Patrick Crayton catches 70 balls as the number two receiver in Dallas.
Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Vick. Okay, moving on…the Eagles made moves all across the board. They have what could be the most talented offensive line in the league if Jason Peters and the Andrew’s Brothers (Shawn and Stacy) play up to par. Rookies Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy could provide depth to what is year after year a sum that is far greater than it’s skill position parts. Losing veteran safety Brian Dawkins will hurt, losing defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to cancer will hurt more.
Prediction: (11-5)
Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook are starting to look like the Stockton-Malone of the NFL. They are aging and they have won more games than my research staff can count. Is this the year that they get over the hump? You can’t blame the team for not going for it with off-season moves. This team was very close to the Super Bowl last year and there is no reason to think they cannot do it again. Sadly, doing it again for the Eagles usually means a conference final. There seems to be a push for Miami this year, and in the next two years expect a Super Bowl birth or a massive overhaul that will not include Andy Reid, McNabb or Westbrook to be part of it.
Fantasy Forecast: Donovan McNabb will throw for 25 touchdowns and potentially run a couple more in.
NFC NORTH
Minnesota Vikings
Brett Favre. Okay, moving on….best combination of offensive and defensive lines west of East Rutherford, N.J. Pair that with an elite running back and a quarterback who commands admiration and respect (if not fear) from the opposition and what do you get? The Vikings have called our bluff. They finally have a quarterback. So what if any are the missing pieces? How about chemistry? Still searching…
Prediction: (11-5)
The schedule is painfully weak (second easiest) and this team was anyone but Tarvaris Jackson away from advancing in the playoffs last year. You have to think this team has Super Bowl potential, and if they win the easy games, home-field could be the key to their success.
Fantasy Forecast: Brett Favre will not play all 16 games, however he will throw for 3,300 yards and 20 tds.
Green Bay Packers
If this was professional wrestling, Brett Favre would be playing the role of “Hollywood Hogan,” good guy turned bad. Meanwhile Aaron Rodgers is the people’s champ. Everyone forgets A-Rod is brittle, and if he is out for any length of time raise your hand if you have confidence in Erroll Flynn at quarterback. The offense has the looks of a juggernaut and Dom Capers has installed a 3-4 defense that should play to the roster’s strength at linebacker, watch out for rookie B.J. Raji at nose tackle. If Raji can join Tommie Harris of Chicago and the Viking’s Williams Brothers the Packers will have an elite anchor for years to come.
Prediction: (11-5)
If Rodgers is healthy, Ryan Grant totes the rock for 80 yards a game and the new 3-4 Dom Capers defense is anything resembling a Dom Capers defense, this team is going to the playoffs. Offensively, they should be the toast of the NFC, defensively we’re not sure. The only worry is that two teams from the North have not made the playoffs in some time and the Pack might need to grab the division title to get in.
Fantasy Forecast: Ryan Grant will double last year’s 4 touchdowns to 8.
Detroit Lions
Breathe deeply Lions fans, the Matt Millen era is over. Whether you blame him entirely for the Lions descent is neither here nor there. What is clear is that there is truly nowhere to go but up. Starting with superstar in the making Calvin Johnson and last year’s Ryan Grant in Kevin Smith and you have a start to something. Toss in an over-hyped quarterback in Matthew Stafford, oops I lost the censor there. Ahem, a rookie quarterback in Matthew Stafford and the Lions believe they have the makings for a resurgence.
Prediction: (3-13)
The decision has been made to overlook a former star in QB Daunte Culpepper and go with youth. There is nothing to lose you may say. I say there are games to be lost, and Stafford is going to throw some serious picks. Ask Georgia fans how much they will miss his drive killers? I love the arm and he’s got the right guy to throw to in Johnson, but this team is far from good on defense and rookie quarterbacks don’t often out-score veteran ones. Improvement is sure to come, be patient Lions fans.
Fantasy Forecast: If Stafford starts 16 games he will throw between 25 and 30 interceptions. Mark it down.
Chicago Bears
The quarterback everyone loves to hate, Jay Cutler, is a Chicago Bear. This news is about 5 years too late. Granted Cutler was slinging passes in the SEC then, but the Bears have had a revolving door at quarterback and without mentioning any names, lets just say Cutler is the best arm to blow into the windy city since Mark Prior. Forgive me, I’m mixing sports again. Last year, the defense took a giant step back and Matt Forte was a pleasant surprise as a rookie running back.
Prediction: (9-7)
Last year the Bears won nine games. This year they have the NFL’s easiest schedule. They have upgraded considerably at quarterback. So why do I think 9 wins? Between Eli Manning and Cutler, we will find out just how important having experienced/talented receivers are. It doesn’t appear Cutler has a lot to work with, but he will make them better. It wouldn’t shock me if the Bears win the division, but I’m not counting on it.
Fantasy Forecast: Greg Olsen leads the Bears with 70+ catches (maybe even in yards and touchdowns..gulp).
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers
Carolina liars were the Panthers last year. A 12-4 romp through the season, and a 33-13 beat-down at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs. Which team do you believe in? The Panthers are essentially the same team as last year. This could be a good thing, a great duo at running back, proven play-makers on defense and a steady quarterback in Jake Delhomme. The flipside, is the usually steady Delhomme had an atrocious performance that has left a bad taste in the mouths of anyone who watched regardless of who you were rooting for.
Prediction: (6-10)
Under coach John Fox’s tenure, this team has been consistently inconsistent. There is no way 12 wins are a possibility, not with the second toughest schedule in the league. No NFC South division champ has repeated and don’t expect that trend to change. I don’t expect Delhomme to make it through the season healthy and this team is a Josh McCown/Matt Moore audition away from reversing it’s 12-4 record to 4-12.
Fantasy Forecast: DeAngelo Williams will go for 12 tds this season, a marked drop from 20 a year ago.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were a surprise to love last year. Rookie QB, first year starting RB, rookie coach, rookie GM. I feel like I’m writing about an expansion team!! Matt Ryan was like the girl next door who literally moves next door to you and literally has “girl-next-door” looks. Can I set the literal record for milking this idea in a football paragraph? You go from the gorgeous, but wild and mean spirited girl who broke your heart after her _____ addiction and left you searching for refuge. Enter the fresh-faced, polite and quirky girl who makes you forget you ever even had good times with what’s her face.
Prediction: (9-7)
Can you expect the Falcons to build upon last year’s turnaround with so many important pieces comfortable and ready for year two? Sure! Eleven wins though seems a bit dramatic, but that was the case last year. The offense should improve with Tony Gonzalez meshing with a very talented group. The defense is where the question marks lie. If I was to shop around for a new team to follow, this would be the one with long-term potential. Don’t expect too much in year two, the Falcons won’t break your heart, but they might not win the division either.
Fantasy Forecast: Michael Turner will come back to earth with 1,300 yards and 9 tds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I don’t know where to begin here. Gone, gone, gone. Everyone is gone. Jon Gruden, Derrick Brooks, Warrick Dunn. The Buccaneers may have a plan, but I’m not sure what it is. The team was perennially bouncing between mediocrity and playoffs since their 2002 Super Bowl Triumph. The team was getting old, yes, but they were competitive. In is a new coach and plenty of new faces. Do Kellen Winslow and Derrick Ward make you shake in your boots? This will be a rebuilding effort.
Prediction: (4-12)
The defense could remain solid, the offensive line looks to be above average and there are a stable of okay players on offense. There is just a lot of okay going on here. I hate to say has-been as it may not prove to be appropriate, but if I told you 4 years ago that Byron Leftwich, Ward and Antonio Bryant were your nucleus on offense would you be any more confident then than one would be now?
Fantasy Forecast: Someone other than Winslow, Ward, Bryant will lead the team in touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints
It’s trendy to think that the record-setting type of aerial assault Drew Brees and company puts on display will translate into post-season glory. The Saints were disappointingly average last year. Scoring in bunches, and giving them all back. Not a lot has changed, the secondary should be better, thus making the defense better. The offense could take a step back and this would still be a potent team.
Prediction: (11-5)
I don’t think there is any team in the league that could have a bigger swing depending on one player than the Saints. If Drew Brees went down week one like Tom Brady did last year, I think this team could win 3 games. If he’s his usual superman self, I expect this team to win the division and be a contender come playoff time.
Fantasy Forecast: Lance Moore will be less, not in overall productions, but 6-7 touchdowns seems right.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers
When your coach is the biggest name on the team, that is rarely a good thing. When Mike Singletary is your coach, that seems to be a good thing. This team is a quintessential team I would root for. A gritty-gutty quarterback, an injury-prone tailback, the rookie wide-receiver who holds out and a bunch of high effort defensive players. I can just see myself leading this team on Madden to a 9-7 record and being perfectly happy.
Prediction: (6-10)
This team has less talent than most, but they do get the most out of what is there, and what isn’t for that matter. Frank Gore is a keeper and this is a potential “sum greater than the whole of its parts” story. Is Shaun Hill the next Rich Gannon or the next Jay Fiedler. If it’s the latter, this team isn’t going to the playoffs anytime soon.
Fantasy Forecast: Michael Crabtree doesn’t play this year, at least one rookie wideout in Oakland tops his 0 catches. I’m just not sure which.
Seattle Seahawks
Last year, Seahawks were beaten up more than any professional team not named the 2009 New York Mets. Out is legendary coach Mike Holmgren and in is Jim Mora Jr. who still wants to coach the University of Washington I think. This team has owned the west up until last year, and the Cardinals don’t look dynastic so it’s not unthinkable that the Seahawks make a run behind Matt Hasselbeck and his corps of possession receivers. I’m not sure I’ve seen less break-away ability at wideout since the 2002 Raiders. This west coast offense should keep the chains moving even if the running game doesn’t.
Prediction: (8-8)
Aaron Curry was the top pick at linebacker and will help the defense, this team has a good amount of talent across the board, but they don’t strike fear anywhere except maybe linebacker. If Hasselbeck stays healthy this team can make the playoffs. It also could miss it, with or with out him. If the Cardinals falter, pencil the Seahawks in for another division title.
Fantasy Forecast: Julius Jones does not run for 1,000 yards. I know, not bold, but he’s fun to tease.
Saint Louis Rams
This is one of the more interesting teams in the league. It has some well known names: Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, Leonard Little. But, it also has some good young talent. The problem is there isn’t much else. This is a team with barely a recognizable name on offense beyond Bulger and Jackson and the defense is anything but deep. This team could surprise as it did last year, making a lot of games closer than expected, but don’t expect it to translate to a lot of wins.
Prediction: (4-12)
Health has been a problem for so long with key players that this team has sadly fallen from division contender to one of the weakest in the league. The strange part is there are the bridges to the Marshall Faulk era in Bulger and Jackson. At some point, maybe in two years, this team will be back on track, if not turf.
Fantasy Forecast: Randy McMichael catches 45 passes and this is unfortunately notable.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals you could say backed there way into a division championship last year, however, their backs were turned when they caught most of those passes anyway. Then the playoffs came and suddenly they could play some defense and even run it with Edgerrin James. Santonio Holmes had to ruin it all or this would have been the biggest shocker to win the Super Bowl maybe ever. The Cardinals can hang their hats on a remarkable season, or they can come back for more. They didn’t lose much and drafted Chris “Beanie” Wells at the end of the first round, if he can provide balance watch out.
Prediction: (9-7)
Forget Jake Plummer, the Cardinals passing game resembled the Stoney Case days this pre-season. The whole post Super-Bowl loss letdown season looks way too likely if the pre-season is any indication. But, the pre-season is rarely any indication of anything. I don’t expect the Cardinals to take the next step toward consistently making the playoffs, but they could. I just don’t think any of the teams in this division are good enough to take the crown from them. But, the Seahawks just might.
Fantasy Forecast: Kurt Warner will play in 9 games this season. He will throw for 18-20 tds though.
Playoffs:
NFC West: Cardinals (9-7) NFC East: Eagles (11-5) NFC North: Vikings (11-5)
NFC South: Saints (11-5) Wild Cards: Packers (11-5) Cowboys (10-6)
Wild Card Round: Cowboys defeat Cardinals Packers defeat Saints
Divisional Round: Eagles defeats Packers Vikings defeat Cowboys
NFC Championship: Eagles defeats Vikings
A Loser Certainly, A Lost Cause? Hardly.
Anyone who knows me well could list a few things that I am passionate about. Near the top would be the Oakland Raiders and dogs. In elementary school I even named my first dog, a Scottie, Raider. I struggle every time Sarah McLaughlin hits the airwaves for the humane society and ever since I can remember, I would dream of willing a great sum of money to aid animals in unfortunate circumstances. Not surprisingly, when the news came out about two years ago that Michael Vick had participated and funded a large dog-fighting ring I was not shocked, but definitely disturbed. Deeply disturbed. The images and descriptions were unspeakable, unreadable and way too much for me to look at repeatedly. Over the past two years I have made excoriating remarks, cursed his name and continually wished for the worst for Michael Vick. As time passed, his prison time elapsed. Now, Michael Vick is a free man again.
I fully expect Vick to return to the gridiron, where his undeniable talents were routinely on display for the Atlanta Falcons from 2001-2006. There has been a great deal of attention as to where Vick may land, the Oakland Raiders were the obvious choice for many pundits, with the organization’s track record for acquiring castaways, misfits and well, criminals. I cringed at the thought of the scenario. Even Al Davis’ deep dementia couldn’t lead to such an acquisition could it? The Raiders publicly denied any interest in Vick and some contend that executive Amy Trask, would never stand for bringing in an animal-abuser.
This got me thinking, I have always dreamed of the chance to turn the woebegone Raiders around from a personnel standpoint. And yes, I would get it done. Would I take a chance on Vick?
All of the media hoopla surrounding 
Vick over the past month has me befuddled. The consensus is that he has not played in two years and thus, he will not be able to play quarterback. What???? Please wake me up if you hear a story about Vick where a commentator doesn’t use the buzz-word “wildcat” immediately. Sure, Vick ran for 1,000 yards in his last season (the only quarterback ever to do so) but, this guy was drafted number one overall to play QUARTERBACK. Vick has a cannon for an arm and while his completion percentages were not astounding, he can make all the throws and wasn’t exactly surrounded with weapons galore. How quickly we forget that Atlanta had a wonderful run, by well…running. Warrick Dunn, T.J. Duckett and Vick were the elite ground attack in the league. Vick was throwing to guys like Brian Finneran, stone-hands Reggie Kelly and a cast of thousands who were anything but memorable.
The best evidence of Vick’s talent was when the Falcons traded up to the first pick. I was shocked that Atlanta would not only give up the great Tim Dwight, but the fifth pick overall and the first pick of the second round. I can’t say I blamed them for wanting a once in a generation talent like Vick. In other news a couple guys the Chargers drafted with those picks, LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees have had some success in the league.
I digress. Vick was not always pretty or a classic quarterback, but he won games. Over the past two years, guys like Brock Berlin and Cleo Lemon have started games, in fact Lemon was mistaken for Vick a week ago, that mistake won’t happen again!
The Raiders have the former #1 overall JaMarcus Russell and the consummate journeyman winner Jeff Garcia at the quarterback position. Russell has two years to prove he’s not a bust, Garcia has one year before he’s forty. Taking a “flier” on Vick would ensure that you have a quality backup at the very lease. In a year or two if the JaMarcus project doesn’t work, you have a talented quarterback on the roster. Frankly, Vick would probably be good enough to start at wide receiver for the Raiders, which is both a credit to his athleticism and the weakness of the Raiders wide receiving corps, but that’s another story…Marvin Harrison anyone?
For a team like the 49ers, Vick would be head and shoulders above what they have at the position. Name five backup quarterbacks in the league who have a better resume than Vick. I’m still waiting. The thought that he might not find a job in 2009 is a bit of a head-scratcher all things considered. Yes, there is much to consider! He’s rusty, the public relations sting would be unpleasant for a while that is for sure. Professional sports is famous for giving second, third and eighth chances for spousal abusers, drug pushers and a myriad of other morally uncouth acts. The only athlete I can think of who has been unsigned despite unquestionable talent is Barry Bonds. Bonds is 45, and could be headed to prison. Vick is 29 and is out of prison, these are not similar cases by my count.
My prediction is this: Vick will have a story resembling basketball player Latrell Spreewell’s after he choked coach P.J. Carlesimo in 1997. Everyone was doubting that a year out of the game and a character that questionable could regain his form. It wasn’t two years before Spreewell was leading the Knicks to the NBA Finals. Spreewell was never a big problem again, and he had a good deal of success in the NBA. Rightfully so, he will always be remembered as the guy that choked his coach. Vick will always be remembered for cruelty to dogs, his on the field exploits remains to be seen.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want the Raiders to get Vick, I’m confident they won’t. It’s difficult for me to say I am rooting for him, I’m not. I do believe though, that he deserves a chance to make a living, to demonstrate that he can be an upstanding citizen and prove everyone wrong who doubt that he can be anything near the franchise quarterback he was thought to be a lock for eight years ago.
Do Big Arm’s Pay Big Dividends?
Anyone who knows my preference in a quarterback knows that I have an affinity for the quarterbacks who would be described with such adjectives as: gritty, gutty, gamer, good-decision maker, game manager. Okay maybe I just used terms starting with the letter G, but you get the idea. Rich Gannon was easily my favorite quarterback as he was the epitome of getting the most out of an average at best skill-set. It was with great disappointment when I saw JaMarcus Russell selected number one by my Oakland Raiders. It’s too early to write off Russell, but lets just say he has not surprised my original prediction that rhymed with dust.
This made me want to examine further whether my belief that quarterbacks with better intangibles than arms, or better decision making ability is more important than the ability to make the deep out throw. Does my argument hold water? Lets find out….
The Cannons
This group have undisputed arms. No scout would question their ability to make “all the throws”
JaMarcus Russell (OAKLAND 2-7)
- speculation that he has possibly the strongest arm in NFL history. Also could have the worst touch in NFL history.
Daunte Culpepper (DETROIT 0-2)
- Had a great run throwing deep to Randy Moss in Minnesota, also has shown to be of little help to at least two franchises. Just pulled off the street by the Lions.
Matt Cassel (NEW ENGLAND 5-3)
- Tom Brady’s caddie is making a name for himself with an ever improving game, including the 400 yard exclamation point last week, albeit in a loss to…
Brett Favre (NEW YORK JETS 7-3)
- The veteran gunslinger, still throws harder than most, leading the first place Jets in his first season.
Ben Roethlisberger (PITTSBURGH 7-3)
- Big Ben, seen often with an ice-bag on his shoulder. This year because of being battered enough to be put in a shelter. He also throws enough heat to warrant an ice-bag once in a while.
Joe Flacco (BALTIMORE 6-4)
- Strong-armed rookie has been surprisingly effective for the upstart Ravens.
Jay Cutler (DENVER 6-4)
- Has proclaimed his arm to be stronger than Elway’s ever was. I proclaim he’s cockier than Elway was and he will have two less rings to show for it.
Matt Ryan (ATLANTA 6-4)
- This most impressive rookie has been everything the Falcons hoped for and more. Threw a touchdown on his first drive and has not looked back since.
Jason Campbell (WASHINGTON 6-4)
- Campbell has been called upon to be a game manager, but he has a strong arm and looks to be putting it all together.
Peyton Manning (INDIANAPOLIS 6-4)
- Never thought of as overpowering physically, but he can make all the throws with good zip much like..
Eli Manning (NEW YORK GIANTS 9-1)
- Better arm than big brother Peyton, that’s where the comparison ends in terms of who’s stronger in individual areas.
Aaron Rodgers (GREEN BAY 5-5)
- No Favre arm, but throws one of the prettier and more catchable deep balls in the league.
Kerry Collins (TENNESSEE 9-0)
- The embattled veteran has been through several stops and has thrown a tight spiral everywhere he goes. Much maligned, but he’s been to the conference championships with two different teams, doesn’t look like a third is hard to imagine.
CARSON PALMER (CINCINNATI 0-4)
- The golden boy didn’t have a chance this year, something was awry. Injuries, poor protection and his own problems. He should probably shut it down for the year.
CANNONS RECORD: 74-49 Winning Percentage 60% projects to 10-6 record
LEGAL FIRE ARMS
This group does not demand extensive game planning against the deep ball, but they have NFL arms which can make the necessary throws to move the chains.
Tyler Thigpen (KANSAS CITY 0-4)
- Biggest thing to hit the Thigpen clan since Yancey! Leading a spunky KC offense.
Philip Rivers (SAN DIEGO 4-6)
- Fiery leader taking over duties under what could become a pass-first offense for the first time during the LT administration.
Kurt Warner (ARIZONA 7-3)
- Owner of one of the quickest releases, is making a strong bid for a third MVP trophy, not to mention resurrecting football in the desert.
Tony Romo (DALLAS 5-2)
- Makes the potent Cowboys offense go, he showed how valuable he is during their free-fall during his absence.
Matt Schaub (HOUSTON 3-4)
- Injury prone quarterback who inspires hope while on the field, but will he ever play a full season?
Drew Brees (NEW ORLEANS 5-5)
- Arm has been questioned, but you can’t question his results, putting up possibly the most impressive statistical season for any quarterback the NFL has seen.
Kyle Orton (CHICAGO 5-4)
- Orton Hears a Hoo, he was hooing everywhere early this season and you thought that was a bad thing. Has at least cemented himself as a stop-gap starter for a team with a decent defense.
Donovan McNabb (PHILADELPHIA 5-4-1)
- Has an arm that can make most of the throws, but is a bit erratic on deeper passes. He has been a fixture for Andy Reid and continues to play well when he plays.
David Garrard (JACKSONVILLE 4-6)
- Words like game-manager are used to describe him, he’s steady across the board.
Trent Edwards (BUFFALO 5-5)
- Tedwards was the toast of the town for the first six weeks, now not as much.
Matt Hasselbeck (SEATTLE 1-4)
- Has done everything Mike Holmgren has asked of him in his tenure, maybe the best compliment you can pay Hasselbeck is the fact that he was thought to be a risky starter when he came over from Green Bay.
Gus Frerotte (MINNESOTA 5-3)
- The maligned veteran is experiencing a bit of a renaissance in Minnesota despite the fact his play is pretty much the same as always. The new Gus same as the old Gus, but winning keeps the critics away.
Brady Quinn (CLEVELAND 1-1)
- Was in more commercials than NFL games up until recently, he’s created excitement for the Dog Pound.
OVERALL 50-51-1 Winning Percentage 49% projects to 8-8 record
POP GUN ARMS
This group have been criticized for not having the arms to test defenses and are relegated to dink-and-dunk offenses. They do not strike fear in defensive backs hearts.
Chad Pennington (MIAMI 6-4)
- Doing all the things needed for the surprise team of the NFL, he has already helped lead the team to five more wins than last year.
Jeff Garcia (TAMPA BAY 4-3)
- The current poster boy for this category, all Garcia does is complete passes, move the chains and win. Everywhere he has gone they have won. Well except Detroit, but nobody can win in Detroit.
Jake Delhomme (CAROLINA 8-2)
- An intangibles guy who has been a winner in Carolina, he makes one of the best deep threats, Steve Smith, work for all his big plays, despite getting a bit in the way of the offense lately, he is usually reliable.
Marc Bulger (SAINT LOUIS 2-7)
- Can be an excellent trigger-man when surrounded with high-end talent. When he’s not…well he’s average at best
Shaun Hill (SAN FRANCISCO 1-2)
- A lot of moxie, very little flash, but he’ll give you what he has. If only he could give you that and MORE.
Brian Griese (TAMPA BAY 3-0)
- Through 67 passes for Jon Gruden in one game, I think you can think of at least thirty quarterbacks you’d rather have throwing that many passes.
OVERALL 24-18 Winning Percentage 57% projects to a 9-7 record
VERDICT
The huge arms actually have the best winning percentage, can’t argue with the numbers! Obviously, the big stars of the NFL are the guys with the monster arms and for good reason.
The middle group with average arms, seem to give you average results. Showing that my original argument doesn’t miss much when you take out the guys who are neither combine wonders nor underwhelming every-mans.
My favorite guys, the pop-gun club win you more than they lose!
Of course there are several factors to note, many quarterbacks who played several games are not listed. Namely Lions starters (which would equally hurt across the board) and strong armed Derek Anderson’s 3-5 record is no help to the first group.
What you see here is that the stats are ever so close. The sample size of the pop-gun club is the smallest, because these guys are rarely given the opportunity to start. If the playoffs began today however 3/5 teams who employ these underwhelming specimens would be in the playoffs.
What I’m saying is that the cost of an elite talent in the draft or via free agency often outweighs the price tag that comes with these acquisitions in terms of wins. Improving your team across the board and starting a serviceable signal caller who will keep you in the game is a recipe that can easily get you to the playoffs.
In the end, the guys with the rocket arms seem to hold the trophy at the end of the year. By my rankings the last ten championships were disbursed 7-1-2. What would be more helpful would be an examination of the amount of abject failures in the strong armed category. For every Ben Roethlisberger there have been 4 Akili Smith’s. Rarely do teams go bust on a Chad Pennington.
I guess what I’m saying is Jeff George got a raw deal.
2008 NFL Midseason Report: NFC
The NFC is made up of two very strong divisions (the East and the South) and two weak divisions (North and West). While the early season favorite Cowboys have been struggling without their signal caller, the conference seems to be the New York Giants and everyone else, however the Giants came out of nowhere last season to become Super Bowl Champions. Plenty of teams are capable of pulling their best 2007 New York Giants impression.
NFC EAST
New York Giants (7-1)
The aforementioned Giants came on strong late last season to earn a wild-card birth and run the table with their historic upset of the Patriots. The Giants came back intact almost completely. Michael Strahan retired and Osi Umenyiora suffered a season ending injury. Who’s noticed? Justin Tuck is becoming a pro-bowl caliber player and Mathias Kiwanuka has filled in admirably. The champs have a swagger of a team with something to prove and a strong running game and quietly solid season from Eli Manning has the team looking like a good chance to represent the conference in Tampa come February.
Prediction: (13-3)
This team looks better than last year’s team. The NFC East is the most competitive in football so getting out with a division title will be a great accomplishment as they look to go for back to back titles.
Washington Redskins (6-3)
New coach Jim Zorn has the Redskins looking to reach the playoffs again and eclipse last year’s win total. Jason Campbell is playing solid, and Clinton Portis has been tremendous. This is not a deep team, but they do the things needed to win most games. This team has not been hurting themselves with big mistakes, credit can be shared by Portis taking pressure off of Jason Campbell.
Prediction: (10-6)
In a difficult division, ten wins under a new coach is very impressive. The Redskins have the ability to beat anyone, their big four (Campbell, Portis, Santana Moss and Chris Cooley) are performing as well as anyone in the NFC. This team could be a surprise come playoff time when the weather gets cold and the running game becomes even more important.
Dallas Cowboys (5-4)
Tony Romo’s injury has killed the Cowboys early momentum. My pre-season Super Bowl pick from the NFC looked heavily under matched against the Giants last week. The bye week could not come at a better time for this team. They have as much talent as any team in the league, the question is can they put a healthy team on the field?
Prediction (10-6)
The Cowboys are not on the radar and I believe this makes them dangerous. The addition of Roy Williams to the offense should help open things up for Terrell Owens and the running game, a healthy Tony Romo makes this team go. Previous playoff collapses should provide the motivation for this team to fight for another chance to redeem their tarnished reputation as playoff pansies. They could miss the playoffs altogether or they could ride Romo to the Super Bowl, we know one thing for sure they will be interesting to follow.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
Donovan McNabb looks healthy again, Brian Westbrook is playing well and several new additions such as Asante Samuel and DeSean Jackson have the Eagles again in contention. A trendy pick to challenge the Cowboys, the Eagles have fought from a slow start winning three straight and looking to stay in the playoff hunt.
Prediction: (10-6)
The Eagles are tough to peg. They have two of the best players in all of football at QB and RB. Their defense is continually tough, the offense seems to be getting healthy, but are they any better than past Eagle teams that managed a playoff birth and nothing more? I can’t see them winning any more than ten games and a first round exit.
NFC NORTH
Minnesota Vikings (4-4)
The Vikings came into the season with much promise and excitement. The defense has been dominating against the run, although injuries to the Williams brothers (Pat and Kevin) could mean an implosion for the defense. The offense has been coming around now that Gus Frerotte has taken the reigns. Adrian Peterson earns the respect and Gus Gus has enough experience and arm strength to make plays. Their 4-4 record seems about as fitting as any teams this season.
Prediction: (8-8)
This may seem a bit pessimistic, but the injuries to the Vikings interior are crucial. This team has the makings of being a Tennessee Titans clone, they are stronger in some areas, however the second half schedule is not easy and expecting Frerotte to win games for you if the defense continues to give up points is not a winning proposition, despite his solid play of late.
Green Bay Packers (4-4)
The post-Favre era has yielded mixed results Aaron Rodgers has played brilliantly, so how do they have as many losses at the season’s half-way point as all of last year? Well, for one their schedule is brutal, they are winning the games they should, but no rest for the weary. Ryan Grant has been essentially a bust and the defense is playing good enough to win. This team has shown they can play with anyone, pushing the Titans to overtime, however making the playoffs is far from a guarantee. The two games remaining against the Chicago Bears will probably determine the divisions fate, and this division will probably only land one team in the playoffs, just like last year.
Prediction: (9-7)
The division race is a two horse one with the Bears, who have the inside track. Expect some hard fought games and the Packers hanging tough to get a winning season and possibly another division title. Aaron Rodgers is the division’s best quarterback and his surrounding cast has the most overall talent, it’s a shame Ryan Grant has not provided enough help to aid Rodgers 300 yard passing efforts.
Detroit Lions (0-8)
What can you say? Matt Millen is gone. But, the Lions have decided to start a guy who was retired less than a week ago. Daunte Culpepper is going to attempt to learn at least 8 plays, 7 of which will call for throwing deep to Calvin Johnson. This team has young talent and has been surprisingly competitive without their starting quarterback and being generally over matched every week. They have blown some close games and if Culpepper can provide a steady hand at the end of this season’s audition they could gain some hope for next year.
Prediction: (1-15)
It’s pretty much impossible to go-winless although this team looks like it has the potential to make it happen. An injury to Culpepper would thrust Drew Stanton into the mix and if he couldn’t get the start this week, well then, that’s NOT a good thing. There are no games left where you’d give them an even shot, but this is the NFL, the Lions will win one. Storyline for the rest of the year is Daunte a stop-gap or next year’s quarterback?
Chicago Bears (5-3)
The Bears have been a pleasant surprise, Kyle Orton is playing the best of his career, Matt Forte has been the best of an impressive rookie running back class and even Devin Hester is contributing on offense. The defense still has the stars, however they are anything but dominant, yet they show up and compete for four quarters. This team has the inside track to win the division, but Orton’s health and the hunger of the Vikings and Packers, make their task of holding the lead anything but easy.
Prediction: (9-7)
The Bears have some tough games remaining, the two games with the Packers should decide the division. If there is a split you’d have to like the Bears chances, however they have the Titans with Rex Grossman behind center, so essentially you have to think they will be 5-4. Don’t sleep on the Bears…but they could be hibernating come January.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers (6-2)
Trendy Super Bowl pick every other year, this team was an unknown with Jake Delhomme coming off of injury. The offense has been very solid, with a tandem running game of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart opening up passing lanes for Steve Smith and his old buddy Mushin Muhammed. The defense has also been very solid, with Julius Peppers back off of a tough season last year. Don’t forget the ageless wonder John Kasay he’s having a pro bowl year.
Prediction: (11-5)
Go look at the Panther’s Super Bowl roster of 2002 and you’ll find several familiar names, this team is veteran and battle tested even on the biggest stage. Their division is wildly competitive, but they have managed a 6-2 record to this point, up next: Oakland and Detroit, unless they blow a gasket they will be 8-2, this team could secure home field potentially. I won’t go that far, but I do love their chances, a team that has shown it knows how to pull out close wins.
Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
What’s not to like about this feel good team? Rookie quarterback steps in and plays like a veteran, free agent caddie to LaDainian Tomlinson on pace for 1,500+ yards and a feisty defense. Anyone watching last weeks destroying of the Raiders has to believe that the Falcons are for real under first year coach Mike Smith. The question is can they keep their heads above water in a very tough division.
Prediction: (9-7)
This is a team that could easily win a couple of divisions in the NFL, but I have them falling short of the playoffs. This team is solid across the board, they face several tough tests and it’s a lot to expect Matt Ryan to win road games in December with playoff pressure, however it was a lot to expect him to start from week one with this kind of success. I won’t be surprised if they get to nine wins, but a playoff birth would be a shock for this guy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
This team is a very fun team to evaluate. They seem to have a system that is tested and the ability to plug in players on offense without much of a decline is something most teams cannot pull off (Cowboys anyone?) The Bucs have won with Brian Griese and Jeff Garcia, played Earnest Graham at fullback and been without their number one receiver Joey Galloway for most of the season. Tampa is still one of the best defensive teams in the NFL and the offense has been able to do the job and pick them up once in a while. The special teams are special and this team would love to play for it all in their own stadium.
Prediction: (10-6)
With all of that adoration for Jon Gruden’s team why do I have them at 10-6? Well they should be ready for the Vikings after their bye and then they have the Lions, it’s not hard to imagine them at 8-3 at that point, they finish with the Raiders, you know Gruden won’t let that one slip, I see a guaranteed nine wins, this is a tough division. 10 wins is nothing to sneeze at.
New Orleans Saints (4-4)
The Saints have been inconsistent over the last two and a half years. This year a lot is at stake in determining if this team is a contender like two years ago, or needs a lot of help like last year. They have limped into a 4-4 record and look to have a healthy Reggie Bush in two weeks. If they could get all of their playmakers healthy this is arguably the best offense in football. Drew Brees has done more with less, yet every win seems to require thirty points.
Prediction: (8-8)
Again, this is a team that could win a division or three, however getting to .500 has been grueling and despite the fact they face the Chiefs and the Lions in the second half, the rest of their games are not easy. A healthy offense could push this team into the playoffs, however, they have done nothing to make you believe they will be healthy.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers (2-6)
It doesn’t feel that long ago that the 49ers were 2-1 and thinking playoffs. Hmm, that didn’t quite work out. Out is quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan, out is head coach Mike Nolan. In, Mike Singletary, preferably with pants and Shaun Hill, we’ve seen how that story ends. He is bringing a hard-nosed attitude, how that translates to wins is unknown. This team has some good players, but really if they were not in the division they are, they might not have two wins. The talent level just isn’t that high. Aside from Frank Gore and some nice young defensive players, this team is a long way from the playoffs.
Prediction: (4-12)
I don’t like much of what’s going on in the bay area, however, they do have a quarterback who knows the system having battled for the spot in training camp, they have one of the best backs in the business and numerous people are fighting for their jobs, this should lead to some competitive games and maybe a couple wins.
Seattle Seahawks (2-6)
We knew that Seahawks continual dominance of the weak NFC West would end sometime soon, what we didn’t know is that it would not be taken away, but they would become a doormat so soon. It’s hard to blame anyone, they have simply been too beat up to get a full team on the field. Every player who has sniffed an NFL practice field in the last five years has been contacted by the Seahawks, you may know someone personally who auditioned to play wide receiver. Seneca Wallace has been serviceable the last couple weeks filling in for Matt Hasselbeck, however quarterback play is far from the only weakness on this team.
Prediction: (4-12)
Well, it was a good run. The tough thing is that next season doesn’t even look very promising, if this team was fully healthy it would be competitive for possibly a winning season, but they look to have been passed by the Cardinals in the division and definitely are not a contender in the NFC overall. Just another rainy day on the Seattle sports scene for 2008.
Saint Louis Rams (2-6)
After firing Scott Linehan, interim coach Jim Haslett has the team playing inspired football. This team has been a tough opponent and they have been anything but healthy also. Donnie Avery, the first wide receiver taken in the last NFL draft was a head scratcher, as of late he has been making defensive backs confused. With a healthy Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger this team would be a viable contender for the division, however the awful start coupled with the aforementioned health problems have taken any momentum out of the sails.
Prediction: (5-11)
This team has two very quality wins over the Redskins and the Cowboys. That in itself leaves reason for optimism. The schedule is a little easier in the second half, five or six wins seams to be the target. If this team can have a decent second half, it could build momentum for a comeback year next year.
Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
Your NFC West Champion Cardinals, this is the only gimme as far as divisions go. The Cardinals are the class of the NFC West. They have been electric on offense, with Kurt Warner having taken out another loan from the Devil he’s looking like an MVP candidate again. The aerial attack could be receiving more ground support with rookie Tim Hightower taking over for Edgerrin James. The defense has done a good enough job to play to the level of the competition and keep the Cardinals offense in the game to win it. Not only are the Cards set in this division, they could have their sights on possibly hosting a playoff game.
Prediction: (11-5)
About the only thing that could derail this offense is an injury to Kurt Warner, if that happens Matt Leinart should be able to keep them from losing the division, eight wins could easily be enough as sad as that is. If you’re looking for a team to jump on the bandwagon, it probably isn’t the Cardinals, they don’t seem to have the defense or balance to beat the upper echelon teams in the NFC, with that said, they could throw their way into the NFC Championship if everything went their way.
Playoffs:
NFC West: Arizona (11-5) NFC East: New York (13-3) NFC North: Green Bay (9-7)
NFC South: Carolina (11-5) Wild Cards: Washington (10-6) Dallas (10-6)
Wild Card Round: Dallas defeats Arizona Green Bay defeats Washington
Divisional Round: New York defeats Green Bay Dallas defeats Carolina
NFC Championship: Dallas defeats New York
2008 NFL Midseason Report: AFC
At the midpoint of the season, we’re left with one undefeated team and one defeated team. It’s obvious that the playoff push is wide open for the six spots for each conference. Is push what I’m really looking for? It’s not a race, and it’s not a chase, but this is a blog so I can say things like the playoff push.
Without further adieu here is my take on the NFL season to this point, and predictions for the rest of the year. (NFC report coming in my next post)
AFC EAST
New York Jets (5-3)
Meet the Jets, come on in and greet the Jets, Brett Favre, such a gunslinger, he threw six touchdowns in one game, I think that in itself should get the Jets a playoff spot. Oh wait, this is a team that lost to the Raiders, was handed a win in Kansas City. I believe the changes on the offensive line have been the main reason for the quick turnaround. This is a team with many weapons and a hot Favre could easily get them to 10-6. Can the defense hold up and which Favre are you getting the one with the six touchdown game, or the one that has nine in his other seven starts?
Prediction: (9-7) I see more of the latter in the previous question, that coupled with a less than dominant defense spells mediocrity, however eight wins is double what they had last year.
New England Patriots (5-3)
Despite their three point loss Sunday Night, the Pats are still quietly tied for the division lead. The patchwork offense has rallied around green quarterback Matt Cassel, who is both efficient and unimpressive, much like green products. This team is flying under the radar with notable contributions from household names such as Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Bristol Myers-Squibb. Bill Belichick may be doing one of his best coaching jobs to date.
Prediction: (10-6) the second half schedule is a bit tougher, a playoff birth is not impossible, making any noise is improbable.
Buffalo Bills (5-3)
All this talk about circling the wagons over the years apparently leads to jumping on the Bills bandwagon. I for one will have nothing to do with it. Marshawn Lynch is averaging a pedestrian 3.5 yards per carry and no Bill has more than 2 sacks. One thing to like is the Bills remaining schedule is very favorable, but I feel that the Bills do not do anything particularly well and are not a lot different than the Patriots. Can Trent Edwards step up to the level of playoff quarterback?
Prediction: (9-7) Buffalo reminds me of this years Cleveland Browns, they could reach 10 wins, but could also miss the playoffs at 10-6. I think they will drop a game against a lesser opponent. Hello Toronto!
Miami Dolphins (4-4)
What a pleasant surprise the Phish have been. Greg Camarillo’s touchdown last year kept Miami from 0-16, enter Bill Parcells, Chad Pennington and mix-in some offensive formations named after animals and you have a frisky team. Did you know Joey Porter has 11.5 sacks? No you didn’t, I had to fact check that with Mark Gastineau. The Dolphins are an interesting squad who have enough capable players and seem to be playing with purpose. Every part of me wants to believe they can have a winning season, but I also don’t believe one of my favorite game managers Chad Pennington can stay healthy for 16 games.
Prediction: (8-8) I think anyone 7 months ago would have been ecstatic to see Miami win six games let alone eight. A favorable schedule could lead to sniffing the playoffs, but I see the boys from Florida cooling off as the temperature drops.
AFC SOUTH:
Tennessee Titans (8-0)
What else can you say except they are doing the boring things that every coach wants: Control the line of scrimmage run the ball, stop the run, excellent special teams. Arguably the best coach in the game, Jeff Fischer, has this team eying the Super Bowl. Somehow, Albert Haynesworth is playing at full effort and LenDale White is doing his best “Thunder” impression since he was sharing the carries with Reggie Bush.
Prediction: (14-2)
The defense is amazing; they run the ball for four and a half yards a carry and don’t turn the ball over. Does it matter that the leader in touch down receptions is projected at two? The Titans play their game and few teams will be able to score enough points to make Kerry Collins beat them, which is a good thing for Titans fans. Collins has had playoff success before, I’m not sure whether he can bring the Lombardi Trophy to Tennessee, but I do see a dominant regular season run.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5)
A trendy Super Bowl pick has fallen from grace. How important is a healthy offensive line? Ask the Jaguars, injuries across the o-line has killed the once vaunted running game and put too much pressure on lets say it again “game-manager” David Garrard. What is more difficult to explain is the less than impressive play from the defense which seems ordinary at best.
Prediction: (7-9)
The Jaguars were expected to do what the Titans are doing…great defense and a ball-control offense with enough juice to win close games. However, that has not happened, the two first round pass rushers have provided very little and injuries have relegated this team to being lucky if they make it to .500
Indianapolis Colts (4-4)
The Colts have been beat up have won several games they appeared to have no business winning. Two schools of thought exist: 1) The Colts are a team that will continue to find ways to win or (2) The Colts can’t keep winning close games and will fade fast. At times Indy has looked old, but they still have Manning, Addai and Wayne on offense, Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney on defense.
Prediction: (10-6)
The Colts have weathered a storm of difficulties and have their heads barely above water at 4-4. Peyton has not played his best, I’d be hard pressed to bet against him in the second half. The Titans are the class of the South, but the Colts have won too many games over the years to be counted off in a playoff setting if they can make it in.
Houston Texans (3-5)
A three game win streak breathed hope into a dire situation, a year after the Texans reached 8-8. The Texans can’t seem to catch a break, they have the potential to be a dominant offense with Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. However, the key is the quarterback play, Matt Schaub’s health is as risky as a speculative stock in October. He cannot stay on the field and although Sage Rosenfels is serviceable, he is not going to lead them to playing in January anytime soon.
Prediction: (6-10)
Boy, do the Texans wish they were in the AFC West! The talent level is getting there, with a season’s worth of health at quarterback maybe the Texans will break through. Unfortunately, this is not that season.
AFC WEST:
Kansas City Chiefs (1-7)
I for one, have been awed by the Chiefs ability to be as competitive as they have been, they could easily have three wins at the least. When you consider that they have lost their top two quarterbacks and franchise running back, one win seems about right, but this team has been spunky. The audition for next year’s team begins and the focal points of this story will be Tyler Thigpen and Jamaal Charles, who else is excited?
Prediction: (3-13)
The Chiefs seem to be getting the most out of what they have, and they don’t have much. They are a fun team to watch and you can’t help but admire their ability to stay competitive while starting a third string quarterback from Coastal Carolina and a third string running back albeit a second round pick. The Chiefs could will most likely beat the Raiders and win at least one game they shouldn’t, they are still a long way away, but a shrewd off-season could lead them to being 2009’s Miami Dolphins…and in the AFC’s weakest division, that could be something special.
San Diego Chargers (3-5)
My original AFC Super Bowl pick has a losing record. What do they have you might ask. Well, they have the best running back of the last generation (he looks healthy even under that visor) the best tight end in the game and the AFC’s best performing quarterback to this point. In a division where nobody seems to want to lay claim, nine wins could be plenty. The good news is that the schedule has AFC West Teams!!! The bad news, San Diego was rumored to have given up 44 points during their bye week in a scrimmage with Texas Tech, oh and they are coached by Norv Turner.
Prediction: (9-7)
I would love to say this team could win ten games, but the defense will cost them at least one more game, however, this is a team that lost two heart-breakers to start the season, they have not caught a break. They probably will not catch all the breaks, but with their offense, six wins in the second half can be achieved. If they make the playoffs, they could be dangerous.
Oakland Raiders (2-6)
As a Raiders fan, I could turn this into a rant of epic proportion, but I will save that for another day. They have downgraded at coach, tanked in free-agency and well they have operated like the Raiders again. The organization has now seized claim to the most dysfunctional in the league now that Matt Millen has been kicked out of Detroit. The fact that the Raiders have two wins is amazing considering they had three first downs last week.
Prediction: (3-13)
Anyone who watched the Atlanta game would he hard pressed to think the Raiders could win another game this year. Well, someone will not show up and something good will happen. Other than that, it will be another rough half season where either McFadden or Russell will be shut down for the last few games. Shane Lechler is the best punter of all-time, and he is getting plenty of work.
Denver Broncos (4-4)
Three games into the season, the Broncos looked like an offensive juggernaut and a Super Bowl contender. Oh how things have changed! The Broncos have yet to top twenty points in the last five games, and injuries are mounting. The good news is that they lead the awful AFC West, that fact alone could get them into the playoffs if things fall right for them. However, they were gifted a victory against San Diego, don’t count on that happening again.
Prediction: (8-8)
Looks like the Broncos are going to be throwing the rest of the way, do they have a chance to win the division? Definitely. However, the defense looks as bad as the offense has looked good at the beginning of the season. It’s tough to win shootouts for an entire season.
AFC NORTH:
Cleveland Browns (3-5)
The quarterback controversy in Cleveland has been all the rage, however nobody seems to give G.M. Phil Savage enough credit for getting a solid defense on the field. The inconsistencies on offense have hurt the team, however this team is better than it is given credit for. They are the only team to have beaten the Super Bowl Champion Giants. With Brady Quinn getting the keys to the offense, things will get interesting one way or the other.
Prediction: (6-10)
The jury is out on Brady Quinn, his eight game audition, if in fact it ends up being that long, could end up being one of the bigger story lines of the second half if it is a successful experiment. Expect a mixed bag, a reverse of last year’s 10-6 season that fell short of the playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens (5-3)
I would argue that the Ravens have had the most impressive season all things considered. With a rookie quarterback, no stars at the skill positions and a rookie head coach, the Ravens have only three losses. Deeper analysis shows us that two of the losses came at the hands of arguably the AFC’s two best teams: Tennessee and Pittsburgh each by three points.
Prediction: (9-7)
I’ll eat crow, or rather Raven if Baltimore makes the playoffs this year. The Ravens are Tennessee Light, the offense has young talent and the defense is a veteran one, it will be interesting to see if this team will become a better offense than defense in the next couple seasons. A tough second half schedule will unmask the shortcomings at quarterback, but who knows….maybe I’ll be crying never-more come playoff season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
The recent injury to Ben Roethlisberger could lead to problems down the road, the inability to protect him could be the undoing of what looks like a championship caliber team. The Steelers have enough elite veteran talent to compete with anyone. Can the offensive line pick up its play and can the team stay healthy?
Prediction: (11-5)
This is a team only a couple years removed from a Super Bowl title, if Byron Leftwich must step in for a prolonged period of time, he should be able to win with the talent around him, it was only three years ago that many believed he would take the next step toward a top tier quarterback. The bottom line is that in a conference where hardly any team has more strengths than question marks, the Steelers along with the Colts possess the best combination of proven talent and experience.
Cincinnati Bengals (1-8)
Maybe Chad Johnson was right about that finishing 8-8 prediction. Wait, these are the bungles, Carson Palmer doesn’t look like he’ll be back. It feels like a decade ago that the Bengals were 12-4 and a team on the rise. There just is not enough talent, discipline is lacking and the fact Marvin Lewis still has a job tells you everything you need to know, this team is pretty much resigned to being a league doormat, why change the coach?
Prediction: (3-13)
The Bengals won’t lose this week, they are on a bye. That seems to be one of the only weeks this season they won’t have an L attached to the outcome. I’d say the over/under on wins this year is at 2.5. I’ll be optimistic and go with three. From the Bengal Comedy Files who else loved the Cedric Benson signing, couple that with bringing Chris Henry back….I think we all know that Michael Vick’s next stop is down to Dallas, Oakland and the Bengals being the front-runner.
Playoffs:
AFC West: San Diego (9-7) AFC East: Patriots (10-6) AFC North: Pittsburgh (11-5)
AFC South: Tennessee (14-2) Wild Cards: Jets (9-7) Colts (10-6)
Wild Card Round: San Diego defeats New York & Indianapolis defeats New England
Divisional Round: Tennessee defeats Indianapolis & San Diego defeats Pittsburgh
AFC Championship: Tennessee defeats San Diego